2012 · Week 6

Final / OT

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

26·23

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+0.8est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapEagles
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.073
  • 45.2%Success rate42.7%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback-0.006
  • -0.131EPA / rush-0.208
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.8%
  • -2.29CPOE+0.51
  • 41.4%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 61.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.18
  • 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PHI
DETQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PHIQ1 14:0433Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:5836Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 11:033-2Punt3–0
DETQ1 9:431085Field goal6–0
PHIQ1 3:58728Turnover6–0
DETQ1 0:25212Turnover6–0
PHIQ2 14:5336Punt6–0
DETQ2 12:43422Punt6–0
PHIQ2 10:21621Turnover6–0
DETQ2 8:20721Punt6–0
PHIQ2 4:441053Touchdown6–7
DETQ2 1:1630Punt6–7
PHIQ2 0:49630End of half6–7
PHIQ3 15:001467Field goal6–10
DETQ3 8:2333Punt6–10
PHIQ3 7:191155Field goal6–13
DETQ3 3:3939Punt6–13
PHIQ3 1:50835Field goal6–16
DETQ4 13:39885Touchdown13–16
PHIQ4 10:3010Turnover13–16
DETQ4 10:21821Punt13–16
PHIQ4 6:47376Touchdown13–23
DETQ4 5:18785Touchdown20–23
PHIQ4 3:3236Punt20–23
DETQ4 2:271262Field goal23–23
PHIQ4 0:0300End of half23–23
PHIOT3-21Punt23–23
DETOT533Field goal26–23

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford22/4531111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mikel Leshoure15704.70
Joique Bell7385.40
Nate Burleson22211.00
Matthew Stafford372.31
Keiland Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Calvin Johnson6131350
Tony Scheffler35810
Brandon Pettigrew37380
Nate Burleson49241
Mikel Leshoure34240
Titus Young2560
Joique Bell1230

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick28/4631122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Vick9596.60
LeSean McCoy14221.60
Bryce Brown540.80
DeSean Jackson1-14-14.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin6101301
DeSean Jackson58740
Brent Celek48330
LeSean McCoy78261
Jason Avant24210
Riley Cooper23180
Clay Harbor2290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.54.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.2%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.77