Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.073
- 45.2%Success rate42.7%
- +0.056EPA / dropback-0.006
- -0.131EPA / rush-0.208
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.8%
- -2.29CPOE+0.51
- 41.4%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.9%Red-zone TD rate49.2%
- 1.65Points / drive1.18
- 2.5%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 22/45 | 311 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikel Leshoure | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 13 | 135 | 0 |
| Tony Scheffler | 3 | 5 | 81 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 3 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| Nate Burleson | 4 | 9 | 24 | 1 |
| Mikel Leshoure | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Titus Young | 2 | 5 | 6 | 0 |
| Joique Bell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 28/46 | 311 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 9 | 59 | 6.6 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 14 | 22 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Bryce Brown | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | -14 | -14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 10 | 130 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 5 | 8 | 74 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 7 | 8 | 26 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.77