2022 · Week 1

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

38·35

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -6

Total

49

Model margin

+0.5est.

DET perspective

Push chance

2.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Nothing filed.

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapLions
  • +0.100EPA / play+0.073
  • 47.9%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback+0.173
  • +0.072EPA / rush-0.070
  • 11.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.05CPOE-1.27
  • 46.2%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 72.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
  • 2.43Points / drive2.36
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00985Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 10:18940Turnover on downs0–7
DETQ1 7:1034Punt0–7
PHIQ1 5:511497Touchdown7–7
DETQ2 12:5633Punt7–7
PHIQ2 11:37420Punt7–7
DETQ2 10:0430Punt7–7
PHIQ2 9:44966Touchdown14–7
DETQ2 7:3434Opp touchdown21–7
DETQ2 6:261075Touchdown21–14
PHIQ2 1:55873Field goal24–14
DETQ2 0:0600End of half24–14
PHIQ3 15:001067Touchdown31–14
DETQ3 10:211470Touchdown31–21
PHIQ3 4:09534Touchdown38–21
DETQ3 1:41770Touchdown38–28
PHIQ4 14:16415Punt38–28
DETQ4 12:37415Punt38–28
PHIQ4 10:4142Punt38–28
DETQ4 8:191261Touchdown38–35
PHIQ4 3:51742End of half38–35

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts18/3224300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders13967.41
Jalen Hurts17905.31
Kenny Gainwell5204.01
Boston Scott4102.51

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Brown10131550
Dallas Goedert34600
Kenny Gainwell24120
Miles Sanders2290
Zach Pascal1170
Noah Togiai0100
DeVonta Smith0400

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff21/3721521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift151449.61
Jamaal Williams11282.52
Jared Goff294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amon-Ra St. Brown812641
DJ Chark48521
T.J. Hockenson47380
D'Andre Swift33310
Josh Reynolds13280
Jamaal Williams1220
Kalif Raymond0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.51