Closing spread
PHI -6
Total
49
Model margin
+0.5est.
DET perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play+0.073
- 47.9%Success rate45.7%
- +0.121EPA / dropback+0.173
- +0.072EPA / rush-0.070
- 11.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.05CPOE-1.27
- 46.2%Third-down rate41.5%
- 72.8%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 2.43Points / drive2.36
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 18/32 | 243 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 96 | 7.4 | 1 |
| Jalen Hurts | 17 | 90 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Boston Scott | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown | 10 | 13 | 155 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Noah Togiai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 21/37 | 215 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 15 | 144 | 9.6 | 1 |
| Jamaal Williams | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Jared Goff | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 8 | 12 | 64 | 1 |
| DJ Chark | 4 | 8 | 52 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 4 | 7 | 38 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 3 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamaal Williams | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.20
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.51