2021 · Week 8

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Jalen Hurts

44·6

Lions

Detroit

QB Jared Goff

Ford Field · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

-1.4est.

DET perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Lions

Win probability

  • Lions
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Lions winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapLions
  • +0.061EPA / play-0.061
  • 46.4%Success rate42.1%
  • +0.091EPA / dropback-0.022
  • +0.025EPA / rush-0.123
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +0.39CPOE-0.05
  • 45.5%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 66.1%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.73
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2019 · W3DET @ PHI27–24DET
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DET
DETQ1 15:00423Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:5435Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:55516Missed field goal0–0
PHIQ1 8:361161Touchdown7–0
DETQ1 3:113-12Punt7–0
PHIQ1 1:03631Field goal10–0
DETQ2 12:50915Punt10–0
PHIQ2 7:41881Touchdown17–0
DETQ2 2:511449Turnover on downs17–0
PHIQ2 0:0800End of half17–0
PHIQ3 15:001285Touchdown24–0
DETQ3 9:02643Turnover on downs24–0
PHIQ3 6:001053Touchdown31–0
DETQ3 1:2018Opp touchdown38–0
DETQ3 1:0946Turnover on downs38–0
PHIQ4 14:1569Field goal41–0
DETQ4 9:531167Touchdown41–6
PHIQ4 7:14826Field goal44–6
DETQ4 1:49413End of half44–6

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jalen Hurts9/1410300
Gardner Minshew2/21100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jalen Hurts77110.10
Boston Scott12605.02
Jordan Howard12574.82
Kenny Gainwell13272.10
Jalen Reagor22110.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dallas Goedert67720
Quez Watkins22180
DeVonta Smith13150
Jack Stoll1190
Boston Scott0100
Jalen Reagor1200

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff25/3422200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift12272.30
Godwin Igwebuike3186.00
David Blough166.00
Jermar Jefferson263.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
T.J. Hockenson1011890
Amon-Ra St. Brown35460
Godwin Igwebuike33400
D'Andre Swift55240
Jermar Jefferson44230
Kalif Raymond0100
KhaDarel Hodge0200
Tom Kennedy0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.37