Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.061EPA / play-0.061
- 46.4%Success rate42.1%
- +0.091EPA / dropback-0.022
- +0.025EPA / rush-0.123
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.39CPOE-0.05
- 45.5%Third-down rate34.7%
- 66.1%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 2.39Points / drive1.73
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. DET are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 9/14 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
| Gardner Minshew | 2/2 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 7 | 71 | 10.1 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 12 | 60 | 5.0 | 2 |
| Jordan Howard | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 13 | 27 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert | 6 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Quez Watkins | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| DeVonta Smith | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Jack Stoll | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Boston Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 25/34 | 222 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 12 | 27 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| David Blough | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Hockenson | 10 | 11 | 89 | 0 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Godwin Igwebuike | 3 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Jermar Jefferson | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tom Kennedy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.07
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.37