2019 · Week 3

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Matthew Stafford

27·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 84°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

PHI -4

Total

45

Model margin

+5.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapEagles
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.004
  • 41.5%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.049EPA / dropback+0.069
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -3.54CPOE-1.01
  • 41.4%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 68.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.73Points / drive2.01
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 7–4 since 1999

PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W11DET @ PHI9–16PHI
2022 · W1PHI @ DET38–35PHI
2021 · W8PHI @ DET44–6PHI
2016 · W5PHI @ DET23–24DET
2015 · W12PHI @ DET14–45DET
2013 · W14DET @ PHI20–34PHI
2012 · W6DET @ PHI26–23DET
2010 · W2PHI @ DET35–32PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–PHI
PHIQ1 15:00950Field goal6–3
DETQ1 11:2800Touchdown7–3
PHIQ1 11:14975Touchdown7–10
DETQ1 6:151475Touchdown14–10
PHIQ2 14:09728Punt14–10
DETQ2 10:47426Punt14–10
PHIQ2 8:45733Turnover14–10
DETQ2 4:50444Field goal17–10
PHIQ2 3:29445Turnover17–10
DETQ2 1:5137Field goal20–10
PHIQ2 0:572-3End of half20–10
DETQ3 15:00611Punt20–10
PHIQ3 12:16632Punt20–10
DETQ3 9:24511Punt20–10
PHIQ3 6:59647Touchdown20–17
DETQ3 4:15980Touchdown27–17
PHIQ4 14:533-10Punt27–17
DETQ4 13:0330Punt27–17
PHIQ4 11:311263Touchdown27–24
DETQ4 6:59835Punt27–24
PHIQ4 3:1648Turnover on downs27–24
DETQ4 2:1830Missed field goal27–24
PHIQ4 1:4055Turnover on downs27–24
DETQ4 0:4100End of half27–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matthew Stafford18/3220110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
J.D. McKissic14444.00
Kerryon Johnson20361.81
Ty Johnson451.30
Matthew Stafford310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Jones691011
Danny Amendola45370
Kenny Golladay28170
Logan Thomas11150
Jesse James11130
Nick Bawden11100
Kerryon Johnson1170
T.J. Hockenson1410
Ty Johnson1200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz19/3625920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders13534.10
Jordan Howard11373.41
Carson Wentz4338.30
Darren Sproles242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Sanders24730
Zach Ertz47640
Mack Hollins47620
Nelson Agholor812502
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside13100
Darren Sproles0100
Jordan Howard0100
Dallas Goedert0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.4%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.0%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.23