Closing spread
PHI -4
Total
45
Model margin
+5.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.004
- 41.5%Success rate44.9%
- +0.049EPA / dropback+0.069
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- -3.54CPOE-1.01
- 41.4%Third-down rate45.1%
- 68.1%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.73Points / drive2.01
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 7–4 since 1999
PHI have won 3 straight. Meetings average 54.1 points. PHI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Stafford | 18/32 | 201 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. McKissic | 1 | 44 | 44.0 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 20 | 36 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Ty Johnson | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Matthew Stafford | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Jones | 6 | 9 | 101 | 1 |
| Danny Amendola | 4 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 2 | 8 | 17 | 0 |
| Logan Thomas | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Nick Bawden | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Ty Johnson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 19/36 | 259 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 13 | 53 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 7 | 64 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 4 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 8 | 12 | 50 | 2 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.0%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.49
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.23