Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.035EPA / play-0.017
- 40.3%Success rate40.0%
- +0.166EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.153
- 10.5%Explosive rate9.4%
- +3.44CPOE-0.87
- 44.1%Third-down rate34.8%
- 58.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.89Points / drive1.83
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 11–10 since 1999
PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 5/11 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
| Dennis Dixon | 4/6 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 23 | 69 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dennis Dixon | 3 | 28 | 9.3 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 17/25 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 7/10 | 66 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 34 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Gage | 4 | 5 | 74 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 4 | 9 | 34 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 5 | 6 | 19 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.0%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.26
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.95