2010 · Week 2

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Dennis Dixon

19·11

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 87°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

TEN -6

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTitans
  • +0.035EPA / play-0.017
  • 40.3%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.166EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.153
  • 10.5%Explosive rate9.4%
  • +3.44CPOE-0.87
  • 44.1%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 58.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.83
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 11–10 since 1999

PIT have won 5 straight. Meetings average 44 points. TEN are 9-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W9TEN @ PIT16–20PIT
2021 · W15TEN @ PIT13–19PIT
2020 · W7PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2017 · W11TEN @ PIT17–40PIT
2014 · W11PIT @ TEN27–24PIT
2013 · W1TEN @ PIT16–9TEN
2012 · W6PIT @ TEN23–26TEN
2011 · W5TEN @ PIT17–38PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–TEN
PITQ1 15:0000Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 14:4600Turnover7–0
PITQ1 14:373-12Turnover7–0
TENQ1 13:38539Field goal7–3
PITQ1 10:4638Punt7–3
TENQ1 8:19524Turnover7–3
PITQ1 5:451071Field goal10–3
TENQ2 14:1238Punt10–3
PITQ2 12:0230Punt10–3
TENQ2 10:28421Turnover10–3
PITQ2 8:27612Punt10–3
TENQ2 5:1641Punt10–3
PITQ2 2:303-1Punt10–3
TENQ2 1:4510Turnover10–3
PITQ2 1:36417Field goal13–3
TENQ3 15:00420Punt13–3
PITQ3 12:073-1Punt13–3
TENQ3 10:273-12Punt13–3
PITQ3 9:13510Punt13–3
TENQ3 5:402-7Turnover13–3
PITQ3 4:49711Field goal16–3
TENQ4 14:56510Turnover16–3
PITQ4 12:5734Punt16–3
TENQ4 10:47319Punt16–3
PITQ4 9:1432Punt16–3
TENQ4 6:421-5Turnover16–3
PITQ4 6:3236Field goal19–3
TENQ4 4:591783Touchdown19–11
PITQ4 0:5800End of half19–11
TENQ4 0:56437End of half19–11

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch5/112500
Dennis Dixon4/61800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall23693.00
Dennis Dixon3289.30
Isaac Redman482.00
Mewelde Moore210.50
Charlie Batch100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace24250
Hines Ward1490
Heath Miller2430
Rashard Mendenhall1130
Isaac Redman1130
Antwaan Randle El1200
Mewelde Moore1100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins17/2514911
Vince Young7/106602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson16342.10
Vince Young2126.00
Javon Ringer210.50
Kerry Collins2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Gage45740
Kenny Britt57410
Nate Washington49341
Bo Scaife33200
Chris Johnson56190
Craig Stevens1190
Jared Cook1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.0%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.80
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.26
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.95