2010 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Josh Freeman

20·7

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

CAR -4

Total

38

Model margin

+0.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapPanthers
  • +0.046EPA / play-0.249
  • 42.0%Success rate33.5%
  • +0.164EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.215
  • 10.0%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +2.31CPOE-7.94
  • 42.5%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 64.2%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.88Points / drive0.77
  • 1.5%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. CAR are 27-22 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–CAR
TBQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
CARQ1 12:5330Punt0–0
TBQ1 11:10864Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 7:11833Punt7–0
TBQ1 3:43828Punt7–0
CARQ2 14:19688Touchdown7–7
TBQ2 11:43890Touchdown14–7
CARQ2 7:431040Punt14–7
TBQ2 1:54412End of half14–7
CARQ3 15:0034Punt14–7
TBQ3 13:1634Punt14–7
CARQ3 12:0734Turnover14–7
TBQ3 10:4957Field goal17–7
CARQ3 7:4068Punt17–7
TBQ3 4:371034Field goal20–7
CARQ4 14:46618Turnover20–7
TBQ4 12:35524Punt20–7
CARQ4 10:031878Turnover on downs20–7
TBQ4 3:3531Punt20–7
CARQ4 3:1020Turnover20–7
TBQ4 2:4132Punt20–7
CARQ4 0:2215End of half20–7

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Freeman12/2417820
Micheal Spurlock0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cadillac Williams27511.90
Josh Freeman44310.80
Earnest Graham310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kellen Winslow44830
Mike Williams27541
Earnest Graham56331
Cadillac Williams1580
Jerramy Stevens0100
Sammie Stroughter0100

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore6/1612511
Jimmy Clausen7/135901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams17543.20
Jonathan Stewart8435.40
Mike Goodson5204.00
Matt Moore122.00
Jimmy Clausen100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith38661
Dante Rosario36470
Mike Goodson23330
DeAngelo Williams33200
David Gettis25180
Jeff King0100
Jonathan Stewart0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

2.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.3%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.84