2010 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 4mph
Closing spread
CAR -4
Total
38
Model margin
+0.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.046EPA / play-0.249
- 42.0%Success rate33.5%
- +0.164EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.215
- 10.0%Explosive rate8.1%
- +2.31CPOE-7.94
- 42.5%Third-down rate30.0%
- 64.2%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.88Points / drive0.77
- 1.5%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. CAR are 27-21 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Freeman | 12/24 | 178 | 2 | 0 |
| Micheal Spurlock | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cadillac Williams | 27 | 51 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Josh Freeman | 4 | 43 | 10.8 | 0 |
| Earnest Graham | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kellen Winslow | 4 | 4 | 83 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 2 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Earnest Graham | 5 | 6 | 33 | 1 |
| Cadillac Williams | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerramy Stevens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Sammie Stroughter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 6/16 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 7/13 | 59 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 17 | 54 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 43 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 3 | 8 | 66 | 1 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
2.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.3%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.84