2010 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

17·24

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 64°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -12

Total

36.5

Model margin

+4.2est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

1.3%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Browns

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Browns

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBrowns wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Brownsedge mapRavens
  • -0.077EPA / play+0.028
  • 40.5%Success rate41.8%
  • -0.043EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.126EPA / rush-0.102
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.3%
  • +2.13CPOE+2.93
  • 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 55.3%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.78
  • 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 39–16 since 1999

Meetings average 40.2 points. BAL are 29-25-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6BAL @ CLE10–13CLE
2025 · W11BAL @ CLE23–16BAL
2025 · W2CLE @ BAL17–41BAL
2024 · W18CLE @ BAL10–35BAL
2024 · W8BAL @ CLE24–29CLE
2023 · W10CLE @ BAL33–31CLE
2023 · W4BAL @ CLE28–3BAL
2022 · W15BAL @ CLE3–13CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCLE–BAL
BALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
CLEQ1 12:501162Field goal3–0
BALQ1 6:141085Touchdown3–7
CLEQ1 1:29848Punt3–7
BALQ2 11:521188Touchdown3–14
CLEQ2 5:591183Touchdown10–14
BALQ2 0:1300End of half10–14
CLEQ3 15:00612Punt10–14
BALQ3 11:36653Missed field goal10–14
CLEQ3 8:30617Punt10–14
BALQ3 5:2939Punt10–14
CLEQ3 4:1434Punt10–14
BALQ3 2:5134Punt10–14
CLEQ3 1:45671Touchdown17–14
BALQ4 14:541089Touchdown17–21
CLEQ4 9:133-1Punt17–21
BALQ4 7:39516Field goal17–24
CLEQ4 5:2938Punt17–24
BALQ4 3:49517End of half17–24

Box score

Individual performances

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace18/2414110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis221446.51
Josh Cribbs22010.00
James Davis492.30
Seneca Wallace100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Josh Cribbs58580
Benjamin Watson56471
Peyton Hillis78360
Mohamed Massaquoi0100

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco22/3126230
Anquan Boldin1/1-600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice15805.30
Willis McGahee7294.10
Joe Flacco4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin8111423
Todd Heap45460
Derrick Mason48300
Ray Rice45160
T.J. Houshmandzadeh1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +126.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.2%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.19
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.16