Closing spread
BAL -12
Total
36.5
Model margin
+4.2est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
1.3%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play+0.028
- 40.5%Success rate41.8%
- -0.043EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.102
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.3%
- +2.13CPOE+2.93
- 37.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 55.3%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.31Points / drive1.78
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 39–15 since 1999
BAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. BAL are 29-24-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/24 | 141 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 22 | 144 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| James Davis | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Cribbs | 5 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 5 | 6 | 47 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 7 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 22/31 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1/1 | -6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 29 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 8 | 11 | 142 | 3 |
| Todd Heap | 4 | 5 | 46 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.2%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.16