2010 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

10·24

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

Mall of America Field · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -13

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.6%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapVikings
  • -0.043EPA / play-0.112
  • 40.5%Success rate42.3%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback-0.105
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.121
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -3.37CPOE-2.30
  • 40.4%Third-down rate34.1%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.25
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 44.3 points. MIN are 25-26-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8MIN @ DET15–19DET
2025 · W17DET @ MIN10–23MIN
2025 · W9MIN @ DET27–24MIN
2024 · W18MIN @ DET9–31DET
2024 · W7DET @ MIN31–29DET
2023 · W18MIN @ DET20–30DET
2023 · W16DET @ MIN30–24DET
2022 · W14MIN @ DET23–34DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–MIN
DETQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:34417Punt0–0
DETQ1 11:4437Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:26723Punt0–0
DETQ1 5:4933Punt0–0
MINQ1 4:2510Turnover0–0
DETQ1 4:17312Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 3:04422Punt7–6
MINQ1 1:02124Touchdown7–7
DETQ1 0:571061Missed field goal7–7
MINQ2 10:42520Touchdown7–7
MINQ2 7:18526Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 4:44530Punt7–14
MINQ2 2:27634Turnover7–14
DETQ2 0:54436Field goal10–14
MINQ3 15:001354Field goal10–17
DETQ3 7:47721Punt10–23
MINQ3 3:14180Touchdown10–24
DETQ3 3:014-5Punt10–24
MINQ3 1:441018Punt10–24
DETQ4 13:0936Punt10–24
MINQ4 10:59740Turnover10–24
DETQ4 7:481364Turnover10–24
MINQ4 2:41412Punt10–24
DETQ4 2:12857Turnover10–24
MINQ4 0:5800End of half10–24

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill29/4323712

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jahvid Best7263.70
Stefan Logan12121.00
Maurice Morris650.80
Shaun Hill242.00
Calvin Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Scheffler79601
Calvin Johnson67560
Brandon Pettigrew69440
Maurice Morris57360
Derrick Williams22230
Jahvid Best24130
Bryant Johnson0400

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre23/3420112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson231607.02
Percy Harvin2136.50
Toby Gerhart3124.00
Brett Favre2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Percy Harvin68621
Greg Lewis34300
Adrian Peterson57300
Hank Baskett13180
Jimmy Kleinsasser22170
Greg Camarillo22160
Bernard Berrian24110
Jeff Dugan11100
Visanthe Shiancoe1170
Toby Gerhart0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.63%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.75