Closing spread
MIN -13
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play-0.112
- 40.5%Success rate42.3%
- +0.013EPA / dropback-0.105
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.121
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -3.37CPOE-2.30
- 40.4%Third-down rate34.1%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate48.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.25
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 36–18 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.5 points. MIN are 25-25-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 29/43 | 237 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahvid Best | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 1 | 21 | 21.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 6 | 5 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Scheffler | 7 | 9 | 60 | 1 |
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | 6 | 9 | 44 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Derrick Williams | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 23/34 | 201 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 23 | 160 | 7.0 | 2 |
| Percy Harvin | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 8 | 62 | 1 |
| Greg Lewis | 3 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 5 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Hank Baskett | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Greg Camarillo | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff Dugan | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.26
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.75