Closing spread
GB -3
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.097
- 45.9%Success rate39.0%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.053
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.166
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.31CPOE+0.87
- 41.3%Third-down rate33.1%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.91Points / drive1.43
- 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 40–16 since 1999
CHI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.8 points. CHI are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 34/45 | 316 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermichael Finley | 9 | 9 | 115 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 9 | 11 | 61 | 0 |
| James Jones | 5 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 4 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 6 | 18 | 1 |
| Andrew Quarless | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/27 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 4 | 6 | 94 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 6 | 64 | 1 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Desmond Clark | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.05