2010 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

17·20

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

GB -3

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapBears
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.097
  • 45.9%Success rate39.0%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback-0.053
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.166
  • 8.2%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.31CPOE+0.87
  • 41.3%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.43
  • 2.0%Turnover rate3.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 41–16 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CHI are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5CHI @ GB7–31GB
2025 · playoffsGB @ CHI27–31CHI
2025 · W16GB @ CHI16–22CHI
2025 · W14CHI @ GB21–28GB
2024 · W18CHI @ GB24–22CHI
2024 · W11GB @ CHI20–19GB
2023 · W18CHI @ GB9–17GB
2023 · W1GB @ CHI38–20GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001148Missed field goal0–0
GBQ1 8:22665Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 4:26526Turnover7–0
GBQ1 1:5736Punt7–0
CHIQ1 0:19726Punt7–0
GBQ2 12:281483Field goal10–0
CHIQ2 4:413-7Punt10–0
GBQ2 3:42519Punt10–0
CHIQ2 1:50444Touchdown10–7
GBQ2 0:2637Turnover10–7
GBQ3 15:001486Missed field goal10–7
CHIQ3 6:33736Turnover on downs10–7
GBQ3 1:5039Opp touchdown10–14
GBQ4 14:391374Touchdown17–14
CHIQ4 6:52737Field goal17–17
GBQ4 3:59430Turnover17–17
CHIQ4 2:18831Field goal17–20
GBQ4 0:0400End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers34/4531611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aaron Rodgers22010.01
Brandon Jackson7121.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermichael Finley991150
Donald Driver911610
James Jones55550
Brandon Jackson44270
Jordy Nelson34200
Greg Jennings26181
Andrew Quarless0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler16/2722111

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Cutler33712.30
Matt Forte11292.60
Chester Taylor393.00
Johnny Knox122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox46940
Greg Olsen56641
Earl Bennett35210
Devin Hester15160
Matt Forte22140
Desmond Clark12120
Chester Taylor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

7.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.2%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.05