Closing spread
IND -5.5
Total
47
Model margin
-0.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play-0.017
- 47.2%Success rate39.3%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.205
- 6.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- +3.98CPOE-2.61
- 44.8%Third-down rate31.6%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
- 2.12Points / drive1.70
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 14–6 since 1999
Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/43 | 325 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Collie | 12 | 16 | 171 | 2 |
| Reggie Wayne | 4 | 7 | 65 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Blair White | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| Joseph Addai | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Donald Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 37/57 | 476 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 12 | 24 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 6 | 10 | 169 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 12 | 14 | 140 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2 | 3 | 40 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 9 | 23 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15