2010 · Week 3

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

27·13

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

Invesco Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 85°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

IND -5.5

Total

47

Model margin

-0.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapBroncos
  • +0.095EPA / play-0.017
  • 47.2%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.205
  • 6.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +3.98CPOE-2.61
  • 44.8%Third-down rate31.6%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate61.7%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.70
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 14–6 since 1999

Meetings average 48.3 points. DEN are 6-14 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2DEN @ IND28–29IND
2024 · W15IND @ DEN13–31DEN
2022 · W5IND @ DEN12–9IND
2019 · W8DEN @ IND13–15IND
2017 · W15DEN @ IND25–13DEN
2016 · W2IND @ DEN20–34DEN
2015 · W9DEN @ IND24–27IND
2014 · playoffsIND @ DEN24–13IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–DEN
INDQ1 15:00938Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:3335Punt0–0
INDQ1 10:46746Field goal3–0
DENQ1 7:35421Punt3–0
INDQ1 4:51523Punt3–0
INDQ1 2:313-1Field goal6–0
DENQ1 1:38645Turnover6–0
INDQ2 13:37726Touchdown13–0
DENQ2 10:371387Turnover on downs13–0
INDQ2 4:26519Punt13–0
DENQ2 1:491054Field goal13–3
INDQ2 0:1200End of half13–3
DENQ3 15:00680Touchdown13–10
INDQ3 11:4039Punt13–10
DENQ3 9:5930Punt13–10
INDQ3 9:311189Touchdown20–10
DENQ3 4:51564Field goal20–13
INDQ3 2:24418Punt20–13
DENQ4 14:481370Turnover on downs20–13
INDQ4 8:42993Touchdown27–13
DENQ4 4:261365Turnover on downs27–13
INDQ4 1:3736Punt27–13
DENQ4 0:22228End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning27/4332530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai13292.20
Donald Brown7121.70
Peyton Manning2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Austin Collie12161712
Reggie Wayne47650
Dallas Clark57440
Blair White36271
Joseph Addai24100
Brody Eldridge1280
Donald Brown0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton37/5747611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney12242.00
Correll Buckhalter4123.00
Kyle Orton2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd6101691
Jabar Gaffney12141400
Demaryius Thomas26430
Laurence Maroney23400
Correll Buckhalter67330
Eddie Royal49230
Matt Willis12170
Daniel Graham3490
Dan Gronkowski1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.64
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.15