2009 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -10
Total
37
Model margin
+1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/35 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cooley | 7 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.