2009 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
WAS -10
Total
37
Model margin
+1.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutCraig DahlSHamstring· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJohn GrecoTWrist· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
Commanders
- QuestionableAnthony MontgomeryDTKnee· DNP
- ProbableFred SmootCBRib· Limited
- ProbableChris SamuelsTKnee· Full
- ProbableRobert HensonLBIllness· Full
Win probability
- Commanders
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
All square 7–7 since 1999
RAMS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. WAS are 6-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–WAS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 13:31 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–0 |
| WAS | Q1 11:16 | 12 | 83 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:57 | 11 | 22 | Punt | 0–3 |
| WAS | Q2 13:55 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 0–6 |
| LA | Q2 7:58 | 10 | 89 | Touchdown | 7–6 |
| WAS | Q2 3:56 | 9 | 53 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 1:12 | 3 | 14 | End of half | 7–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 7–6 |
| WAS | Q3 13:55 | 13 | 74 | Field goal | 7–9 |
| LA | Q3 6:27 | 14 | 85 | Turnover | 7–9 |
| WAS | Q4 12:55 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 7–9 |
| LA | Q4 10:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 7–9 |
| WAS | Q4 9:15 | 15 | 81 | Turnover on downs | 7–9 |
| LA | Q4 1:55 | 4 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 7–9 |
| WAS | Q4 1:32 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–9 |
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 23/35 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 19 | 79 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mason | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Cooley | 7 | 9 | 83 | 0 |
| Malcolm Kelly | 4 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Devin Thomas | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.58
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.