Closing spread
PIT -2
Total
34.5
Model margin
+1.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Ravens
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.028EPA / play+0.035
- 41.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.133EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.102EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.3%Explosive rate10.5%
- +2.93CPOE+3.44
- 38.4%Third-down rate44.1%
- 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.78Points / drive1.89
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 33–26 since 1999
PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 24/37 | 256 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 14 | 39 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ray Rice | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 8 | 80 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 3 | 6 | 49 | 1 |
| Todd Heap | 3 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Batch | 12/21 | 141 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 25 | 79 | 3.2 | 2 |
| Charlie Batch | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 2 | 50 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Arnaz Battle | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.82
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.30