2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

17·14

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Charlie Batch

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

PIT -2

Total

34.5

Model margin

+1.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Ravens

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Ravens

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsRavens wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ravensedge mapSteelers
  • +0.028EPA / play+0.035
  • 41.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.133EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.3%Explosive rate10.5%
  • +2.93CPOE+3.44
  • 38.4%Third-down rate44.1%
  • 57.9%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive1.89
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 33–26 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.4 points. PIT are 30-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18BAL @ PIT24–26PIT
2025 · W14PIT @ BAL27–22PIT
2024 · playoffsPIT @ BAL14–28BAL
2024 · W16PIT @ BAL17–34BAL
2024 · W11BAL @ PIT16–18PIT
2023 · W18PIT @ BAL17–10PIT
2023 · W5BAL @ PIT10–17PIT
2022 · W17PIT @ BAL16–13PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultBAL–PIT
PITQ1 15:003-3Punt0–0
BALQ1 12:561153Missed field goal0–0
PITQ1 6:16852Touchdown0–7
BALQ1 2:08978Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 13:33632Punt7–7
BALQ2 10:025-3Punt7–7
PITQ2 8:02511Punt7–7
BALQ2 5:201553Field goal10–7
BALQ3 15:00516Turnover10–7
PITQ3 11:573-4Missed field goal10–7
BALQ3 9:4839Punt10–7
PITQ3 8:061028Punt10–7
BALQ3 3:1637Turnover10–7
PITQ3 2:0131Missed field goal10–7
BALQ3 0:3438Punt10–7
PITQ4 14:061488Touchdown10–14
BALQ4 7:141060Turnover on downs10–14
PITQ4 2:4035Punt10–14
BALQ4 1:08440Touchdown17–14
PITQ4 0:3210Turnover17–14
BALQ4 0:1800End of half17–14

Box score

Individual performances

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco24/3725611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee14392.81
Ray Rice8202.50
Anquan Boldin133.00
Joe Flacco210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason68800
Anquan Boldin710680
T.J. Houshmandzadeh36491
Todd Heap35350
Ray Rice1190
Willis McGahee2420

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Batch12/2114101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall25793.22
Charlie Batch144.00
Mike Wallace111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antwaan Randle El22500
Heath Miller24320
Mike Wallace26240
Hines Ward24140
Rashard Mendenhall2290
Isaac Redman1160
Antonio Brown1160
Arnaz Battle0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Ravens.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.82
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.30