Closing spread
NO -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Panthers
- OutJamar WilliamsLBNeck· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJeff OtahTKnee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableGreg HardyDEFoot· Limited
- QuestionableTyler BraytonDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableMackenzy BernadeauGShoulder· Full
- ProbableTravelle WhartonGAnkle· Full
Saints
- OutReggie BushRBFibula· DNP
- DoubtfulAnthony WatersLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionablePierre ThomasRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRoman HarperSHamstring· Limited
- ProbableUsama YoungSQuadricep· Full
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play+0.039
- 33.5%Success rate46.2%
- -0.274EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -7.94CPOE+5.83
- 30.0%Third-down rate48.8%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 0.77Points / drive1.88
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CAR–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:31 | 15 | 90 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NO | Q1 2:22 | 8 | 25 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CAR | Q2 14:55 | 5 | 72 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 12:15 | 7 | 47 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| CAR | Q2 8:28 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 5:45 | 12 | 63 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 1:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| NO | Q2 0:42 | 3 | 10 | End of half | 7–10 |
| NO | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 23 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q3 12:37 | 7 | 90 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 9:42 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 14–10 |
| NO | Q3 7:25 | 4 | 20 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| CAR | Q3 4:36 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 14–13 |
| NO | Q3 3:07 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 14–13 |
| CAR | Q3 1:27 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 14–13 |
| NO | Q4 13:20 | 17 | 86 | Field goal | 14–16 |
| CAR | Q4 3:55 | 11 | 28 | Turnover on downs | 14–16 |
| NO | Q4 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 14–16 |
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 11/21 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 55 | 1 |
| David Gettis | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/48 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34