Closing spread
NO -12.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+6.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.249EPA / play+0.039
- 33.5%Success rate46.2%
- -0.274EPA / dropback+0.121
- -0.215EPA / rush-0.117
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- -7.94CPOE+5.83
- 30.0%Third-down rate48.8%
- 44.3%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 0.77Points / drive1.88
- 3.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 11/21 | 146 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 13 | 86 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 7 | 21 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Mike Goodson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 55 | 1 |
| David Gettis | 2 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Dwayne Jarrett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 33/48 | 275 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 12 | 67 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 6 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 6 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 5 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 5 | 8 | 37 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 8 | 36 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.89%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
42.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.34