Closing spread
NYG -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+3.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.006
- 39.0%Success rate44.3%
- -0.053EPA / dropback+0.081
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.118
- 8.3%Explosive rate10.7%
- +0.87CPOE+2.60
- 33.1%Third-down rate37.0%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.43Points / drive1.81
- 3.2%Turnover rate4.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 8/11 | 42 | 0 | 1 |
| Todd Collins | 4/11 | 36 | 0 | 1 |
| Caleb Hanie | 3/4 | 36 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 26 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 3 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 2 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 18/30 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 23 | 129 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 8 | 9 | 110 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 4 | 8 | 30 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Kevin Boss | 1 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+3.67