2010 · Week 4

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

3·17

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

New Meadowlands Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 59°F · wind 14mph

Closing spread

NYG -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+3.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapGiants
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.006
  • 39.0%Success rate44.3%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback+0.081
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.118
  • 8.3%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +0.87CPOE+2.60
  • 33.1%Third-down rate37.0%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.43Points / drive1.81
  • 3.2%Turnover rate4.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYG
CHIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:5439Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:20513Punt0–0
NYGQ1 8:371076Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 3:2935Turnover0–3
NYGQ1 1:5333Missed field goal0–3
CHIQ1 0:5836Punt0–3
NYGQ2 13:2634Punt0–3
CHIQ2 11:253-10Turnover0–3
NYGQ2 9:4430Punt0–3
CHIQ2 7:513-3Punt0–3
NYGQ2 5:432-1Turnover0–3
CHIQ2 5:073-8Punt0–3
NYGQ2 3:2537Punt0–3
CHIQ2 1:41418End of half0–3
NYGQ3 15:0037Punt0–3
CHIQ3 13:3336Punt0–3
NYGQ3 11:3536Punt0–3
CHIQ3 9:5237Punt0–3
NYGQ3 8:06895Touchdown0–10
CHIQ3 2:4834Punt0–10
NYGQ3 1:4036Punt0–10
CHIQ3 0:08530Turnover0–10
NYGQ4 13:56625Turnover0–10
CHIQ4 11:5037Field goal3–10
NYGQ4 10:58756Turnover3–10
CHIQ4 6:5031Punt3–10
NYGQ4 5:21232Touchdown3–17
CHIQ4 4:31633Turnover on downs3–17
NYGQ4 2:30349End of half3–17

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler8/114201
Todd Collins4/113601
Caleb Hanie3/43600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte12262.20
Chester Taylor3227.30
Devin Hester11111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen58390
Earl Bennett45260
Johnny Knox12260
Devin Hester35160
Matt Forte2370
Rashied Davis0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning18/3019500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw231295.61
Brandon Jacobs66210.31
Eli Manning3-2-0.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks891100
Steve Smith48300
Travis Beckum12250
Ahmad Bradshaw23140
Kevin Boss15110
Brandon Jacobs1140
Mario Manningham0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.10
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+3.67