2022 · Week 4

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Justin Fields

12·20

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf

Closing spread

NYG -3

Total

39

Model margin

+4.5est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapGiants
  • -0.039EPA / play+0.033
  • 41.1%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.004EPA / rush-0.004
  • 10.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.05CPOE+1.68
  • 41.0%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 60.7%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.02
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYG
NYGQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:44951Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 8:27675Touchdown3–7
CHIQ1 5:06666Field goal6–7
NYGQ1 1:30623Punt6–7
CHIQ2 13:591053Turnover6–7
NYGQ2 9:32880Touchdown6–14
CHIQ2 5:173-5Punt6–14
CHIQ2 3:48618Field goal9–14
NYGQ2 1:44625Punt9–14
CHIQ2 0:3634End of half9–14
CHIQ3 15:00858Field goal12–14
NYGQ3 11:02717Punt12–14
CHIQ3 6:3249Punt12–14
NYGQ3 4:23615Field goal12–17
CHIQ3 1:3336Punt12–17
NYGQ3 0:38421Turnover12–17
CHIQ4 13:3337Punt12–17
NYGQ4 12:051254Field goal12–20
CHIQ4 5:31420Punt12–20
NYGQ4 3:0434Punt12–20
NYGQ4 2:01418Missed field goal12–20
CHIQ4 0:17317Turnover12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Fields11/2217400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khalil Herbert19774.10
Justin Fields7527.40
Trestan Ebner6203.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney45940
Khalil Herbert11240
Trevon Wesco12230
Cole Kmet33160
Equanimeous St. Brown0290
Trestan Ebner2380
Dante Pettis0300
Ihmir Smith-Marsette0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones8/137100
Tyrod Taylor1/31101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley311464.70
Daniel Jones66811.32
Tyrod Taylor33010.00
Matt Breida3186.00
Gary Brightwell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Daniel Bellinger33230
Tanner Hudson12180
Saquon Barkley22160
Darius Slayton12110
Richie James1390
David Sills1250
Kenny Golladay0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.2%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.54