Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
39
Model margin
+4.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.033
- 41.1%Success rate45.0%
- -0.070EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.004EPA / rush-0.004
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.05CPOE+1.68
- 41.0%Third-down rate37.7%
- 60.7%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.78Points / drive2.02
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Fields | 11/22 | 174 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khalil Herbert | 19 | 77 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Justin Fields | 7 | 52 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 4 | 5 | 94 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 1 | 1 | 24 | 0 |
| Trevon Wesco | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 0 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Trestan Ebner | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Dante Pettis | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Ihmir Smith-Marsette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 8/13 | 71 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 1/3 | 11 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 31 | 146 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 6 | 68 | 11.3 | 2 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Gary Brightwell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Bellinger | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Richie James | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.2%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.54