2021 · Week 17

Final

Giants

New York

QB Mike Glennon

3·29

Bears

Chicago

QB Andy Dalton

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 25°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

36.5

Model margin

+10.7est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • -0.141EPA / play-0.087
  • 40.2%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.146EPA / dropback-0.077
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.105
  • 5.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -4.62CPOE-2.87
  • 35.9%Third-down rate34.7%
  • 47.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
  • 1.20Points / drive1.62
  • 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CHI
NYGQ1 15:001-7Turnover0–6
CHIQ1 14:4512Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 14:42520Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 11:47724Touchdown0–14
NYGQ1 8:0855Punt0–14
CHIQ1 4:3233Punt0–14
NYGQ1 2:56520Punt0–14
CHIQ2 14:5034Punt0–14
NYGQ2 13:47935Field goal3–14
CHIQ2 7:451369Field goal3–17
NYGQ2 1:012-4Safety3–19
CHIQ2 0:52539Field goal3–22
CHIQ3 15:001260Touchdown3–29
NYGQ3 9:30520Punt3–29
CHIQ3 6:33412Punt3–29
NYGQ3 4:59519Turnover3–29
CHIQ3 2:3610Turnover3–29
NYGQ3 2:3032Punt3–29
CHIQ3 0:55926Punt3–29
NYGQ4 11:131026Turnover on downs3–29
CHIQ4 7:2134Punt3–29
NYGQ4 4:5636Turnover3–29
CHIQ4 3:3646Turnover3–29
NYGQ4 1:42313End of half3–29

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Glennon4/112402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley211024.90
Devontae Booker18462.60
Mike Glennon11313.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram12120
David Sills11120
Kyle Rudolph0100
Devontae Booker2300
Pharoh Cooper0200
Kenny Golladay0100
Saquon Barkley0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/3517311
David Montgomery0/1001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery22642.92
Andy Dalton3144.70
Khalil Herbert294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darnell Mooney713691
Allen Robinson46350
Cole Kmet35250
Damiere Byrd12230
David Montgomery22170
Jesse James1140
Jimmy Graham0100
Marquise Goodwin0200
Damien Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +72.3%4.7%6.5%2.3%3.0%4.8%3.5%3.6%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.83%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

76.0%

Expected total

42.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+6.93
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+10.73