Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
36.5
Model margin
+10.7est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.141EPA / play-0.087
- 40.2%Success rate41.4%
- -0.146EPA / dropback-0.077
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.105
- 5.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- -4.62CPOE-2.87
- 35.9%Third-down rate34.7%
- 47.5%Red-zone TD rate52.0%
- 1.20Points / drive1.62
- 2.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Glennon | 4/11 | 24 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 18 | 46 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Mike Glennon | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| David Sills | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Pharoh Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/35 | 173 | 1 | 1 |
| David Montgomery | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 2 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Khalil Herbert | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 7 | 13 | 69 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 1 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Jesse James | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.83%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
76.0%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.09
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+6.93
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+10.73