2013 · Week 6

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

21·27

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -9.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • -0.142EPA / play+0.077
  • 40.2%Success rate45.2%
  • -0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
  • -0.235EPA / rush-0.072
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -3.07CPOE+4.85
  • 32.2%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 58.7%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
  • 1.06Points / drive1.95
  • 4.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CHI
NYGQ1 15:0034Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 14:0748Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 12:03541Opp touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 9:501080Touchdown7–7
CHIQ1 3:48886Touchdown7–14
NYGQ2 14:18780Touchdown14–14
CHIQ2 10:311075Touchdown14–21
NYGQ2 5:2037Punt14–21
CHIQ2 3:34958Field goal14–24
NYGQ2 0:0200End of half14–24
CHIQ3 15:00835Field goal14–27
NYGQ3 11:233-3Punt14–27
CHIQ3 9:28837Punt14–27
NYGQ3 5:211076Touchdown21–27
CHIQ3 0:061042Punt21–27
NYGQ4 9:33416Punt21–27
CHIQ4 7:48517Punt21–27
NYGQ4 5:21954Turnover21–27
CHIQ4 1:54614End of half21–27

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning14/2623913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jacobs221064.82
Da'Rel Scott4174.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rueben Randle35751
Hakeem Nicks48700
Victor Cruz45680
Bear Pascoe12140
Brandon Jacobs1280
Da'Rel Scott1240
Brandon Myers0100
Larry Donnell0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler24/3626220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte19673.50
Jay Cutler3206.70
Alshon Jeffery11515.00
Michael Bush681.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall911872
Martellus Bennett67680
Matt Forte66440
Alshon Jeffery15270
Michael Bush1260
Earl Bennett0200
Joe Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.56.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.7%

Expected total

44.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.84