Closing spread
CHI -9.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.142EPA / play+0.077
- 40.2%Success rate45.2%
- -0.087EPA / dropback+0.164
- -0.235EPA / rush-0.072
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- -3.07CPOE+4.85
- 32.2%Third-down rate42.7%
- 58.7%Red-zone TD rate64.4%
- 1.06Points / drive1.95
- 4.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 14/26 | 239 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 22 | 106 | 4.8 | 2 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 5 | 75 | 1 |
| Hakeem Nicks | 4 | 8 | 70 | 0 |
| Victor Cruz | 4 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Da'Rel Scott | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 24/36 | 262 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 19 | 67 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 9 | 11 | 87 | 2 |
| Martellus Bennett | 6 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 6 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 1 | 5 | 27 | 0 |
| Michael Bush | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joe Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.7%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.84