Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.057EPA / play-0.016
- 42.1%Success rate44.0%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.014
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.073
- 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
- -2.04CPOE+1.28
- 35.1%Third-down rate34.8%
- 51.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.57Points / drive1.97
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 25/40 | 241 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 28 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 6 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 5 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| C.J. Board | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Damion Ratley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kaden Smith | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 18/28 | 190 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 16 | 82 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 3 | 3 | 45 | 1 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Allen Robinson | 3 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Ryan Nall | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.94%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.43