2020 · Week 2

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

13·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 66°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

42.5

Model margin

+2.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • -0.057EPA / play-0.016
  • 42.1%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.014
  • -0.067EPA / rush-0.073
  • 7.5%Explosive rate7.5%
  • -2.04CPOE+1.28
  • 35.1%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 51.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.97
  • 2.1%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CHI
CHIQ1 15:001277Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 7:253-1Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 6:1234Field goal0–10
NYGQ1 4:3635Punt0–10
CHIQ1 3:42630Punt0–10
NYGQ1 0:49743Turnover0–10
CHIQ2 12:4851Punt0–10
NYGQ2 10:06733Punt0–10
CHIQ2 5:291180Touchdown0–17
NYGQ2 0:14236Missed field goal0–17
NYGQ3 15:00411Punt0–17
CHIQ3 12:1120Turnover0–17
NYGQ3 11:2134Field goal3–17
CHIQ3 9:50933Punt3–17
NYGQ3 3:571275Touchdown10–17
CHIQ4 14:18520Turnover10–17
NYGQ4 12:141039Field goal13–17
CHIQ4 7:431259Missed field goal13–17
NYGQ4 2:021250End of half13–17

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones25/4024101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley4287.00
Daniel Jones3217.00
Dion Lewis10202.01
Sterling Shepard166.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Evan Engram68650
Golden Tate55470
Dion Lewis45360
Darius Slayton36330
C.J. Board33320
Sterling Shepard24290
Damion Ratley0200
Kaden Smith23-10

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky18/2819022

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery16825.10
Cordarrelle Patterson7253.60
Mitchell Trubisky4164.00
Tarik Cohen5122.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Montgomery33451
Darnell Mooney33361
Allen Robinson39330
Jimmy Graham11180
Javon Wims22170
Tarik Cohen11150
Cole Kmet11120
Cordarrelle Patterson2280
Ryan Nall1120
Demetrius Harris0100
Anthony Miller0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.94%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.64
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+2.43