Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.9est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.074
- 44.1%Success rate40.8%
- -0.001EPA / dropback-0.035
- -0.111EPA / rush-0.142
- 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
- -0.10CPOE-1.63
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.0%
- 52.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.41Points / drive1.46
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 17/30 | 252 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 17 | 77 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 6 | 8 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Miller | 3 | 3 | 61 | 1 |
| Cameron Meredith | 4 | 4 | 49 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 1 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 2 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeremy Langford | 3 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 8 | 22 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/36 | 227 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 21 | 85 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Paul Perkins | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 11 | 50 | 1 |
| Victor Cruz | 1 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 5 | 7 | 46 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Paul Perkins | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Will Tye | 2 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Roger Lewis | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Jerell Adams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.7%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+1.85
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.91