2016 · Week 11

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

16·22

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 41°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

NYG -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+5.9est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapGiants
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.074
  • 44.1%Success rate40.8%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback-0.035
  • -0.111EPA / rush-0.142
  • 10.0%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -0.10CPOE-1.63
  • 37.8%Third-down rate36.0%
  • 52.5%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.46
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYG
CHIQ1 15:001061Touchdown6–0
NYGQ1 9:461273Touchdown6–6
CHIQ1 4:04639Field goal9–6
NYGQ1 0:24417Punt9–6
CHIQ2 13:10879Touchdown16–6
NYGQ2 8:351357Field goal16–9
CHIQ2 3:33935Punt16–9
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half16–9
NYGQ3 15:00956Touchdown16–16
CHIQ3 11:0434Punt16–16
NYGQ3 10:04779Touchdown16–22
CHIQ3 6:4932Punt16–22
NYGQ3 5:13517Punt16–22
CHIQ3 3:11847Missed field goal16–22
NYGQ4 13:3232Punt16–22
CHIQ4 12:493-8Punt16–22
NYGQ4 11:4839Punt16–22
CHIQ4 9:3739Punt16–22
NYGQ4 7:14522Punt16–22
CHIQ4 4:3733Punt16–22
NYGQ4 3:3130Punt16–22
CHIQ4 3:00744Turnover16–22
NYGQ4 1:1100End of half16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler17/3025211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard17774.50
Jeremy Langford681.31
Jay Cutler133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Miller33611
Cameron Meredith44490
Marquess Wilson14350
Josh Bellamy22320
Jeremy Langford33300
Jordan Howard18220
Eddie Royal23130
Deonte Thompson11100
Logan Paulsen0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/3622720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings21854.01
Paul Perkins4164.00
Eli Manning410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Sterling Shepard511501
Victor Cruz12480
Odell Beckham Jr.57460
Rashad Jennings56440
Paul Perkins22190
Will Tye25121
Roger Lewis1280
Jerell Adams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.7%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.85
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.91