Closing spread
CHI -6
Total
41
Model margin
+1.8est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.079
- 41.8%Success rate41.1%
- -0.034EPA / dropback-0.020
- -0.129EPA / rush-0.188
- 8.9%Explosive rate6.0%
- -1.92CPOE-1.71
- 37.8%Third-down rate36.4%
- 69.6%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 1.56Points / drive1.50
- 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 21/36 | 150 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 59 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Daniel Jones | 2 | 27 | 13.5 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 7 | 67 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Kaden Smith | 5 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 5 | 9 | 15 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 25/41 | 278 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 13 | 22 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 7 | 18 | 2.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 6 | 10 | 131 | 1 |
| Anthony Miller | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 7 | 9 | 29 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jesper Horsted | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Javon Wims | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.9%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.80