2019 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

14·19

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

CHI -6

Total

41

Model margin

+1.8est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.079
  • 41.8%Success rate41.1%
  • -0.034EPA / dropback-0.020
  • -0.129EPA / rush-0.188
  • 8.9%Explosive rate6.0%
  • -1.92CPOE-1.71
  • 37.8%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 69.6%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.50
  • 3.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CHI
NYGQ1 15:00413Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:5038Punt0–0
NYGQ1 11:26618Punt0–0
CHIQ1 8:331267Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 1:43516Punt0–0
CHIQ2 14:43819Punt0–0
NYGQ2 11:02738Touchdown7–0
CHIQ2 7:383-7Punt7–0
NYGQ2 6:3835Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 5:4533Punt7–0
NYGQ2 4:18423Missed field goal7–0
CHIQ2 1:55859Field goal7–3
NYGQ2 0:0800End of half7–3
CHIQ3 15:00655Touchdown7–10
NYGQ3 12:1237Punt7–10
CHIQ3 9:47788Field goal7–13
NYGQ3 7:091-16Turnover7–13
CHIQ3 6:5443Touchdown7–19
NYGQ3 5:1931Punt7–19
CHIQ3 3:37715Turnover7–19
NYGQ4 14:4547Turnover on downs7–19
CHIQ4 12:58620Punt7–19
NYGQ4 9:0512102Touchdown14–19
CHIQ4 4:1038Punt14–19
NYGQ4 3:37829Turnover on downs14–19
CHIQ4 1:4300End of half14–19

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones21/3615020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley17593.50
Daniel Jones22713.50
Sterling Shepard12222.00
Wayne Gallman111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton47670
Golden Tate37331
Kaden Smith56171
Sterling Shepard59150
Scott Simonson11100
Cody Latimer1170
Saquon Barkley2310

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky25/4127812

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tarik Cohen6254.20
David Montgomery13221.70
Mitchell Trubisky7182.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson6101311
Anthony Miller69770
Tarik Cohen79290
Taylor Gabriel13190
Ben Braunecker2490
David Montgomery2390
Jesper Horsted1140
Javon Wims0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +64.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.9%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.62
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.80