2018 · Week 13

Final / OT

Bears

Chicago

QB Chase Daniel

27·30

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 52°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

Total

44

Model margin

+1.7est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapGiants
  • +0.039EPA / play+0.016
  • 46.3%Success rate39.9%
  • +0.147EPA / dropback+0.054
  • -0.119EPA / rush-0.054
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +2.41CPOE+0.30
  • 41.4%Third-down rate36.5%
  • 67.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 1.96Points / drive1.89
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W10NYG @ CHI20–24CHI
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NYG
CHIQ1 15:002-2Opp touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 14:1443Punt0–7
NYGQ1 12:2135Punt0–7
CHIQ1 10:5438Punt0–7
NYGQ1 9:2834Punt0–7
CHIQ1 8:211157Touchdown7–7
NYGQ1 3:28642Turnover7–7
CHIQ1 0:46515Turnover7–7
NYGQ2 13:0436Punt7–7
CHIQ2 12:0738Punt7–7
NYGQ2 10:0333Punt7–7
CHIQ2 9:011069Touchdown14–7
NYGQ2 3:40525Punt14–7
CHIQ2 1:483-2Punt14–7
NYGQ2 1:14418Field goal14–10
NYGQ3 15:00475Touchdown14–17
CHIQ3 12:4931Punt14–17
NYGQ3 11:091452Touchdown14–24
CHIQ3 3:58816Punt14–24
NYGQ4 14:3142Punt14–24
CHIQ4 12:33661Field goal17–24
NYGQ4 9:251253Punt17–24
CHIQ4 2:2617Turnover17–24
NYGQ4 2:1944Field goal17–27
CHIQ4 1:49664Field goal20–27
NYGQ4 1:1300Touchdown20–27
CHIQ4 1:131045Touchdown27–27
NYGOT749Field goal27–30
CHIOT826Turnover on downs27–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chase Daniel26/3928512
Tarik Cohen1/1110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard16764.80
Tarik Cohen8303.80
Taquan Mizzell372.30
Chase Daniel441.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tarik Cohen12141560
Allen Robinson59790
Taylor Gabriel37170
Taquan Mizzell22160
Josh Bellamy1180
Adam Shaheen2251
Jordan Howard1140
Anthony Miller1211
Trey Burton0100
Ben Braunecker0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning19/3517011
Odell Beckham Jr.1/14910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley241255.20
Wayne Gallman5163.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Russell Shepard22591
Rhett Ellison46420
Odell Beckham Jr.39351
Sterling Shepard46280
Scott Simonson23250
Saquon Barkley34210
Bennie Fowler12110
Wayne Gallman12-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.6%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.02
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+1.67