Closing spread
CHI -3.5
Total
44
Model margin
+1.7est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play+0.016
- 46.3%Success rate39.9%
- +0.147EPA / dropback+0.054
- -0.119EPA / rush-0.054
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.5%
- +2.41CPOE+0.30
- 41.4%Third-down rate36.5%
- 67.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.96Points / drive1.89
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. NYG are 9-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 26/39 | 285 | 1 | 2 |
| Tarik Cohen | 1/1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 16 | 76 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Tarik Cohen | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 12 | 14 | 156 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 9 | 79 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Taquan Mizzell | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Josh Bellamy | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Adam Shaheen | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Braunecker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/35 | 170 | 1 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1/1 | 49 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 24 | 125 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 2 | 59 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 3 | 9 | 35 | 1 |
| Sterling Shepard | 4 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Scott Simonson | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.6%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.85
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.02
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+1.67