Closing spread
CHI -4.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play+0.076
- 42.9%Success rate45.7%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.122
- -0.040EPA / rush+0.007
- 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.30CPOE-3.48
- 39.6%Third-down rate42.0%
- 56.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.06Points / drive2.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 7–6 since 1999
Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaxson Dart | 19/29 | 242 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 3/7 | 45 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jaxson Dart | 6 | 66 | 11.0 | 2 |
| Devin Singletary | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 4 | 4 | 89 | 0 |
| Theo Johnson | 7 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6 | 11 | 62 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Gunner Olszewski | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 20/36 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 13 | 80 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Caleb Williams | 8 | 63 | 7.9 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rome Odunze | 6 | 10 | 86 | 1 |
| Colston Loveland | 4 | 4 | 55 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 3 | 3 | 51 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 5 | 8 | 18 | 0 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Monangai | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.90