2025 · Week 10

Final

Giants

New York

QB Jaxson Dart

20·24

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 33°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CHI -4.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapBears
  • +0.043EPA / play+0.076
  • 42.9%Success rate45.7%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.122
  • -0.040EPA / rush+0.007
  • 8.6%Explosive rate10.1%
  • -1.30CPOE-3.48
  • 39.6%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 56.3%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 2.06Points / drive2.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 7–6 since 1999

Meetings average 38.4 points. CHI are 4-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W4CHI @ NYG12–20NYG
2021 · W17NYG @ CHI3–29CHI
2020 · W2NYG @ CHI13–17CHI
2019 · W12NYG @ CHI14–19CHI
2018 · W13CHI @ NYG27–30NYG
2016 · W11CHI @ NYG16–22NYG
2013 · W6NYG @ CHI21–27CHI
2010 · W4CHI @ NYG3–17NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00630Turnover on downs0–0
NYGQ1 12:13616Turnover on downs0–0
CHIQ1 9:22942Touchdown0–7
NYGQ1 5:403-4Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:34521Punt0–7
NYGQ1 0:40680Touchdown7–7
CHIQ2 13:06429Punt7–7
NYGQ2 11:231265Turnover on downs7–7
CHIQ2 5:26953Turnover on downs7–7
NYGQ2 1:08753Field goal10–7
CHIQ2 0:0300End of half10–7
NYGQ3 15:00656Touchdown17–7
CHIQ3 12:17616Punt17–7
NYGQ3 9:121059Turnover17–7
CHIQ3 5:05956Field goal17–10
NYGQ3 0:341084Field goal20–10
CHIQ4 10:1947Turnover on downs20–10
NYGQ4 8:41419Punt20–10
CHIQ4 6:131086Touchdown20–17
NYGQ4 3:563-8Punt20–17
CHIQ4 2:53453Touchdown20–24
NYGQ4 1:47611Turnover on downs20–24
CHIQ4 0:3800End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jaxson Dart19/2924200
Russell Wilson3/74500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tyrone Tracy Jr.14715.10
Jaxson Dart66611.02
Devin Singletary8202.50
Russell Wilson2126.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton44890
Theo Johnson78750
Wan'Dale Robinson611620
Devin Singletary33530
Daniel Bellinger1280
Gunner Olszewski0200
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1200

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams20/3622010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift13806.20
Caleb Williams8637.91
Kyle Monangai7284.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Rome Odunze610861
Colston Loveland44550
Luther Burden III33510
D'Andre Swift58180
Olamide Zaccheaus1450
Cole Kmet1250
DJ Moore0400
Kyle Monangai0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.90