2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Carson Palmer

20·23

Browns

Cleveland

QB Seneca Wallace

Cleveland Browns Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

CIN -1.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

CLE perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Browns

Win probability

  • Browns
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Browns winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapBrowns
  • -0.042EPA / play-0.077
  • 44.3%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.055EPA / dropback-0.043
  • -0.191EPA / rush-0.126
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
  • +0.88CPOE+2.13
  • 39.8%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 55.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
  • 1.45Points / drive1.31
  • 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CIN lead 32–22 since 1999

Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18CLE @ CIN20–18CLE
2025 · W1CIN @ CLE17–16CIN
2024 · W16CLE @ CIN6–24CIN
2024 · W7CIN @ CLE21–14CIN
2023 · W18CLE @ CIN14–31CIN
2023 · W1CIN @ CLE3–24CLE
2022 · W14CLE @ CIN10–23CIN
2022 · W8CIN @ CLE13–32CLE

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–CLE
CINQ1 15:00934Punt0–0
CLEQ1 9:29521Punt0–0
CINQ1 6:58324Turnover0–0
CLEQ1 5:48839Field goal0–3
CINQ1 2:2840Punt0–3
CLEQ1 0:49982Touchdown0–10
CINQ2 11:04761Field goal3–10
CLEQ2 7:16514Punt3–10
CINQ2 4:29385Touchdown10–10
CLEQ2 3:3030Turnover10–10
CINQ2 2:32529Missed field goal10–10
CLEQ2 1:31738Field goal10–13
CLEQ3 15:001250Touchdown10–20
CINQ3 8:542-13Turnover10–20
CLEQ3 8:0438Field goal10–23
CINQ3 6:32966Field goal13–23
CLEQ3 1:1436Punt13–23
CINQ4 14:491171Touchdown20–23
CLEQ4 10:4432Punt20–23
CINQ4 9:341056Punt20–23
CLEQ4 4:41738End of half20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer25/3637120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cedric Benson15604.00
Bernard Scott273.50
Carson Palmer100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrell Owens10152221
Chad Johnson35590
Jermaine Gresham56350
Jordan Shipley23290
Andre Caldwell34150
Brian Leonard23111

Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Seneca Wallace18/3018411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Peyton Hillis271023.81
Josh Cribbs393.00
Seneca Wallace551.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson610600
Chansi Stuckey57560
Josh Cribbs24240
Evan Moore12241
Peyton Hillis2380
Sam Aiken1170
Mohamed Massaquoi1350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -1.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.3%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.19
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.05