Closing spread
CIN -1.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
CLE perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Browns
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.042EPA / play-0.077
- 44.3%Success rate40.5%
- +0.055EPA / dropback-0.043
- -0.191EPA / rush-0.126
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.88CPOE+2.13
- 39.8%Third-down rate37.8%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate55.3%
- 1.45Points / drive1.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CIN lead 32–22 since 1999
Meetings average 42.7 points. CLE are 24-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 25/36 | 371 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cedric Benson | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Bernard Scott | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 10 | 15 | 222 | 1 |
| Chad Johnson | 3 | 5 | 59 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 5 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jordan Shipley | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 3 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 2 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seneca Wallace | 18/30 | 184 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Hillis | 27 | 102 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Josh Cribbs | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Seneca Wallace | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 6 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Chansi Stuckey | 5 | 7 | 56 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Evan Moore | 1 | 2 | 24 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Sam Aiken | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Mohamed Massaquoi | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Browns; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.19
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.05