2010 · Week 4

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

26·20

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

TEN -6

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTitans
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.017
  • 39.3%Success rate40.0%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.083
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.153
  • 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
  • -2.61CPOE-0.87
  • 31.6%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2022 · W10DEN @ TEN10–17TEN
2020 · W1TEN @ DEN16–14TEN
2019 · W6TEN @ DEN0–16DEN
2016 · W14DEN @ TEN10–13TEN
2013 · W14TEN @ DEN28–51DEN
2011 · W3DEN @ TEN14–17TEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–TEN
TENQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:273-4Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:28655Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 9:21624Punt0–0
TENQ1 6:02851Turnover0–0
DENQ1 1:393-5Punt0–0
TENQ2 14:5233Punt0–0
DENQ2 13:47651Touchdown7–0
TENQ2 11:24471Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 9:1837Punt7–7
TENQ2 7:52627Punt7–7
DENQ2 4:511372Field goal10–7
TENQ2 0:23326Field goal10–10
DENQ3 15:00851Field goal13–16
TENQ3 10:3000Touchdown13–17
DENQ3 10:1931Field goal16–17
TENQ3 8:12724Field goal16–20
DENQ3 5:00821Punt16–20
TENQ3 1:0236Punt16–20
DENQ4 14:12824Turnover16–20
TENQ4 9:4836Punt16–20
DENQ4 8:151166Turnover on downs16–20
TENQ4 4:32510Punt16–20
DENQ4 2:42815Touchdown23–20
TENQ4 1:3300Field goal23–20
DENQ4 1:3134Field goal26–20
TENQ4 0:2830End of half26–20

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton35/5034121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kyle Orton3113.70
Laurence Maroney1150.50
Correll Buckhalter630.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd11181150
Eddie Royal881131
Jabar Gaffney58510
Correll Buckhalter55381
Laurence Maroney24100
Demaryius Thomas1490
Daniel Graham3350

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young17/2817310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson19532.80
Javon Ringer25025.00
Vince Young11818.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington45420
Justin Gage23300
Bo Scaife22270
Kenny Britt37231
Jared Cook12170
Craig Stevens11160
Chris Johnson34110
Damian Williams0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

3.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.1%

Expected total

46.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.74