Closing spread
TEN -6
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.017
- 39.3%Success rate40.0%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.083
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.153
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.4%
- -2.61CPOE-0.87
- 31.6%Third-down rate34.8%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.70Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 35/50 | 341 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Laurence Maroney | 11 | 5 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 11 | 18 | 115 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 8 | 8 | 113 | 1 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 5 | 8 | 51 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| Laurence Maroney | 2 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 17/28 | 173 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 50 | 25.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 4 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Justin Gage | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Bo Scaife | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 7 | 23 | 1 |
| Jared Cook | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
3.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.1%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.38
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.74