2020 · Week 1

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

16·14

Broncos

Denver

QB Drew Lock

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

41

Model margin

-0.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBroncos
  • +0.189EPA / play-0.071
  • 50.8%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.297EPA / dropback-0.051
  • +0.070EPA / rush-0.103
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.1%
  • +2.16CPOE-5.11
  • 47.4%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 76.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 2.85Points / drive1.59
  • 1.1%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2022 · W10DEN @ TEN10–17TEN
2019 · W6TEN @ DEN0–16DEN
2016 · W14DEN @ TEN10–13TEN
2013 · W14TEN @ DEN28–51DEN
2011 · W3DEN @ TEN14–17TEN
2010 · W4DEN @ TEN26–20DEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DEN
TENQ1 15:00638Punt0–0
DENQ1 11:48527Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:52858Missed field goal0–0
DENQ1 5:231050Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 0:2636Punt0–7
DENQ2 13:55417Turnover0–7
TENQ2 11:44519Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 9:211274Turnover on downs7–7
TENQ2 3:171173Missed field goal7–7
DENQ2 0:08233End of half7–7
DENQ3 15:0037Punt7–7
TENQ3 13:591440Missed field goal7–7
DENQ3 7:283-4Punt7–7
TENQ3 5:511667Touchdown13–7
DENQ4 13:49975Touchdown13–14
TENQ4 9:0839Punt13–14
DENQ4 7:24524Punt13–14
TENQ4 4:5730Punt13–14
DENQ4 4:0632Punt13–14
TENQ4 3:051267Field goal16–14
DENQ4 0:17318End of half16–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill29/4324920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry311163.70
Ryan Tannehill3144.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Corey Davis781010
Adam Humphries67470
A.J. Brown58390
Jonnu Smith47361
Derrick Henry33150
Anthony Firkser2250
MyCole Pruitt1111
Kalif Raymond0200
Jeremy McNichols0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Lock22/3321610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon15785.21
Phillip Lindsay7243.40
Drew Lock351.70
Royce Freeman100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Noah Fant56811
Jerry Jeudy48560
Tim Patrick45290
DaeSean Hamilton13180
Royce Freeman11120
Phillip Lindsay11110
Melvin Gordon3380
Tyrie Cleveland1170
Jake Butt1200
Nick Vannett12-60

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.9%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.43