Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
41
Model margin
-0.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Broncos
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.189EPA / play-0.071
- 50.8%Success rate40.3%
- +0.297EPA / dropback-0.051
- +0.070EPA / rush-0.103
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.1%
- +2.16CPOE-5.11
- 47.4%Third-down rate39.5%
- 76.8%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 2.85Points / drive1.59
- 1.1%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 29/43 | 249 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 31 | 116 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Davis | 7 | 8 | 101 | 0 |
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 4 | 7 | 36 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| MyCole Pruitt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Kalif Raymond | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremy McNichols | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Lock | 22/33 | 216 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 78 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Drew Lock | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 4 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Tim Patrick | 4 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Butt | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nick Vannett | 1 | 2 | -6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.9%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.43