Closing spread
DEN -8.5
Total
42.5
Model margin
+7.3est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.148EPA / play+0.036
- 37.9%Success rate43.7%
- -0.165EPA / dropback+0.097
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.069
- 7.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- -3.50CPOE-1.38
- 32.0%Third-down rate42.4%
- 58.5%Red-zone TD rate62.1%
- 1.36Points / drive2.10
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Ward | 12/28 | 112 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 18 | 60 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 1 | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 4 | 8 | 27 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Gunnar Helm | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Elic Ayomanor | 2 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| Bryce Oliver | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chimere Dike | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | 25/40 | 176 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RJ Harvey | 6 | 70 | 11.7 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Bo Nix | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 9 | 61 | 1 |
| Troy Franklin | 4 | 6 | 44 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Badie | 2 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Lucas Krull | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| J.K. Dobbins | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| RJ Harvey | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.1%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.58
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.29