2013 · Week 14

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

28·51

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 18°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

DEN -13

Total

49.5

Model margin

+6.1est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBroncos
  • +0.020EPA / play+0.205
  • 42.3%Success rate50.2%
  • +0.116EPA / dropback+0.346
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.029
  • 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +1.14CPOE+6.21
  • 41.0%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 63.4%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
  • 1.79Points / drive2.85
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2022 · W10DEN @ TEN10–17TEN
2020 · W1TEN @ DEN16–14TEN
2019 · W6TEN @ DEN0–16DEN
2016 · W14DEN @ TEN10–13TEN
2011 · W3DEN @ TEN14–17TEN
2010 · W4DEN @ TEN26–20DEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DEN
TENQ1 15:00573Touchdown7–0
DENQ1 12:371374Touchdown7–7
TENQ1 7:2813Touchdown14–7
DENQ1 7:01534Punt14–7
TENQ1 4:314-4Punt14–7
DENQ1 2:49856Field goal14–10
TENQ1 0:2533Punt14–10
DENQ2 13:49617Punt14–10
TENQ2 10:36974Touchdown21–10
DENQ2 6:581181Touchdown21–17
TENQ2 1:5033Punt21–17
DENQ2 0:52737Field goal21–20
DENQ3 15:00765Touchdown21–27
TENQ3 11:52314Turnover21–27
DENQ3 10:30943Touchdown21–34
TENQ3 7:34680Touchdown28–34
DENQ3 4:501279Field goal28–37
TENQ4 13:1579Turnover28–37
DENQ4 9:47317Touchdown28–44
TENQ4 9:123-7Punt28–44
DENQ4 8:131049Touchdown28–51
TENQ4 3:0766Turnover on downs28–51
DENQ4 1:4400End of half28–51

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick13/2417211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson12463.81
Shonn Greene9465.12
Ryan Fitzpatrick144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Justin Hunter481141
Nate Washington26240
Kendall Wright23170
Chris Johnson2390
Michael Preston1160
Visanthe Shiancoe2220
Taylor Thompson0100

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning39/5939740

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Knowshon Moreno14785.61
Montee Ball15775.11
Peyton Manning3-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker8121171
Demaryius Thomas710881
Wes Welker510611
Jacob Tamme45470
Julius Thomas57351
Knowshon Moreno67310
Montee Ball34100
Joel Dreessen1280
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +137.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.06