Closing spread
DEN -13
Total
49.5
Model margin
+6.1est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.020EPA / play+0.205
- 42.3%Success rate50.2%
- +0.116EPA / dropback+0.346
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.029
- 7.7%Explosive rate9.8%
- +1.14CPOE+6.21
- 41.0%Third-down rate47.1%
- 63.4%Red-zone TD rate81.1%
- 1.79Points / drive2.85
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 13/24 | 172 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Shonn Greene | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 2 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Hunter | 4 | 8 | 114 | 1 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Kendall Wright | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Preston | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 39/59 | 397 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knowshon Moreno | 14 | 78 | 5.6 | 1 |
| Montee Ball | 15 | 77 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 12 | 117 | 1 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 7 | 10 | 88 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 5 | 10 | 61 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 5 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Montee Ball | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.1%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.06