Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
38
Model margin
+2.5est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.066EPA / play-0.001
- 42.4%Success rate42.8%
- -0.003EPA / dropback+0.071
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.100
- 7.0%Explosive rate9.4%
- +1.31CPOE+1.55
- 41.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate49.6%
- 1.43Points / drive1.46
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 26/41 | 305 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 11 | 74 | 6.7 | 1 |
| LenDale White | 13 | 42 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Chris Henry | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Ben Troupe | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/21 | 200 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hall | 7 | 89 | 12.7 | 1 |
| Selvin Young | 14 | 54 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Marshall | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.50