Closing spread
TEN -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.2est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.089EPA / play-0.046
- 39.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.100EPA / dropback+0.025
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.170
- 10.3%Explosive rate8.7%
- -6.16CPOE-1.91
- 30.8%Third-down rate35.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
- 1.16Points / drive1.51
- 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 24/39 | 173 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 22 | 52 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 7 | 13 | 48 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1 |
| Lance Ball | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 27/36 | 311 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 13 | 21 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 6 | -6 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Washington | 8 | 9 | 92 | 1 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 58 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 4 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| Damian Williams | 1 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Kenny Britt | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Lavelle Hawkins | 2 | 5 | 16 | 0 |
| Jared Cook | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| Marc Mariani | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
4.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.17