2011 · Week 3

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

14·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Matt Hasselbeck

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 73°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

TEN -7

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.2est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTitans
  • -0.089EPA / play-0.046
  • 39.5%Success rate39.2%
  • -0.100EPA / dropback+0.025
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.170
  • 10.3%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -6.16CPOE-1.91
  • 30.8%Third-down rate35.9%
  • 57.0%Red-zone TD rate68.0%
  • 1.16Points / drive1.51
  • 2.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2022 · W10DEN @ TEN10–17TEN
2020 · W1TEN @ DEN16–14TEN
2019 · W6TEN @ DEN0–16DEN
2016 · W14DEN @ TEN10–13TEN
2013 · W14TEN @ DEN28–51DEN
2010 · W4DEN @ TEN26–20DEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–TEN
DENQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:14722Punt0–0
DENQ1 7:361030Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 3:4538Punt7–0
DENQ1 2:1335Punt7–0
TENQ1 0:42995Touchdown7–7
DENQ2 11:37336Turnover7–7
TENQ2 10:08736Turnover7–7
DENQ2 5:554-3Punt7–7
TENQ2 3:50729Field goal7–10
DENQ2 1:11519Punt7–10
TENQ2 0:0300End of half7–10
TENQ3 15:001141Punt7–10
DENQ3 9:261665Touchdown14–10
TENQ3 1:171-7Turnover14–10
DENQ3 1:0367Turnover on downs14–10
TENQ4 13:27615Punt14–10
DENQ4 10:40518Punt14–10
TENQ4 7:54795Touchdown14–17
DENQ4 4:24841Turnover14–17
TENQ4 1:3931End of half14–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton24/3917322

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Willis McGahee22522.40
Lance Ball177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker713480
Daniel Fells24420
Brandon Lloyd46380
Matt Willis23161
Lance Ball35110
Virgil Green1170
Willis McGahee3521

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Hasselbeck27/3631120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson13211.60
Marc Mariani144.00
Matt Hasselbeck2-2-1.00
Javon Ringer6-6-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nate Washington89921
Craig Stevens11580
Chris Johnson47540
Damian Williams13190
Kenny Britt33180
Javon Ringer22170
Lavelle Hawkins25160
Jared Cook22120
Daniel Graham1141
Marc Mariani1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

4.38%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.69
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.17