2016 · Week 14

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Trevor Siemian

10·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

TEN -2

Total

44

Model margin

+2.1est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTitans
  • -0.059EPA / play+0.037
  • 41.0%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.004EPA / dropback+0.103
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.049
  • 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
  • -0.31CPOE+1.12
  • 34.4%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 50.5%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
  • 1.51Points / drive1.72
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2022 · W10DEN @ TEN10–17TEN
2020 · W1TEN @ DEN16–14TEN
2019 · W6TEN @ DEN0–16DEN
2013 · W14TEN @ DEN28–51DEN
2011 · W3DEN @ TEN14–17TEN
2010 · W4DEN @ TEN26–20DEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–TEN
DENQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
TENQ1 13:351170Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 7:29213Turnover0–7
TENQ1 6:4835Field goal0–10
DENQ1 5:4836Punt0–10
TENQ1 4:2137Punt0–10
DENQ1 2:52421Punt0–10
TENQ1 0:53724Punt0–10
DENQ2 12:13636Punt0–10
TENQ2 9:311984Field goal0–13
DENQ2 1:27740End of half0–13
TENQ3 15:00729Punt0–13
DENQ3 10:41637Punt0–13
TENQ3 8:0238Punt0–13
DENQ3 6:241379Turnover on downs0–13
TENQ4 14:473-3Punt0–13
DENQ4 12:34636Touchdown7–13
TENQ4 9:5831Punt7–13
DENQ4 8:551039Field goal10–13
TENQ4 4:28531Punt10–13
DENQ4 2:26638Turnover10–13
TENQ4 0:5300End of half10–13

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Siemian35/5133410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Justin Forsett6172.80
Devontae Booker310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas10161260
Emmanuel Sanders11141001
A.J. Derby55570
Justin Forsett33180
Jordan Taylor34180
Cody Latimer12160
Devontae Booker22100
Bennie Fowler1450
Virgil Green0200

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota6/208800
DeMarco Murray0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray21924.41
Derrick Henry12423.50
Marcus Mariota8384.80
Delanie Walker188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker27300
Rishard Matthews13260
Anthony Fasano12170
Harry Douglas12100
Derrick Henry1150
DeMarco Murray0200
Jalston Fowler0100
Marcus Mariota0100
Tajae Sharpe0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +24.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

42.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.09