Closing spread
TEN -2
Total
44
Model margin
+2.1est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Titans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.059EPA / play+0.037
- 41.0%Success rate45.5%
- -0.004EPA / dropback+0.103
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.049
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.3%
- -0.31CPOE+1.12
- 34.4%Third-down rate45.6%
- 50.5%Red-zone TD rate75.2%
- 1.51Points / drive1.72
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Siemian | 35/51 | 334 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 10 | 16 | 126 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 11 | 14 | 100 | 1 |
| A.J. Derby | 5 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 3 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Jordan Taylor | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Devontae Booker | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Bennie Fowler | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 6/20 | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 12 | 42 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 2 | 7 | 30 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 3 | 26 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalston Fowler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
42.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.21
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.09