2019 · Week 6

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

0·16

Broncos

Denver

QB Joe Flacco

Empower Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -1

Total

41

Model margin

+3.0est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapBroncos
  • +0.063EPA / play-0.054
  • 45.7%Success rate40.3%
  • +0.143EPA / dropback-0.019
  • -0.046EPA / rush-0.110
  • 11.6%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.45CPOE-2.47
  • 39.4%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 74.8%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
  • 1.99Points / drive1.47
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2022 · W10DEN @ TEN10–17TEN
2020 · W1TEN @ DEN16–14TEN
2016 · W14DEN @ TEN10–13TEN
2013 · W14TEN @ DEN28–51DEN
2011 · W3DEN @ TEN14–17TEN
2010 · W4DEN @ TEN26–20DEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DEN
TENQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:20732Field goal0–3
TENQ1 10:1637Punt0–3
DENQ1 8:39621Punt0–3
TENQ1 5:44730Punt0–3
DENQ1 2:00314Punt0–3
TENQ2 14:53615Punt0–3
DENQ2 11:5637Punt0–3
TENQ2 10:3369Punt0–3
DENQ2 7:24450Field goal0–6
TENQ2 4:40519Punt0–6
DENQ2 1:5344Punt0–6
TENQ2 0:4810Turnover0–6
DENQ2 0:3739Punt0–6
TENQ2 0:1200End of half0–6
DENQ3 15:00520Turnover0–6
TENQ3 12:2535Punt0–6
DENQ3 10:52421Punt0–6
TENQ3 9:0031Turnover0–6
DENQ3 8:06641Touchdown0–13
TENQ3 4:5648Punt0–13
DENQ3 2:1833Punt0–13
TENQ3 0:30615Punt0–13
DENQ4 12:3731Punt0–13
TENQ4 11:37615Turnover on downs0–13
DENQ4 9:10749Field goal0–16
TENQ4 4:531278Turnover0–16
DENQ4 1:2100End of half0–16

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill13/1614401
Marcus Mariota7/186302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry15281.90
Ryan Tannehill166.00
Marcus Mariota242.00
Dalyn Dawkins221.00
Dion Lewis1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Humphries66470
Delanie Walker36430
Corey Davis35360
Anthony Firkser11250
A.J. Brown24230
Dion Lewis33200
Jonnu Smith1180
Derrick Henry1350
Darius Jennings0100
Tajae Sharpe0200

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco18/2817701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Phillip Lindsay15704.71
Royce Freeman11343.10
Joe Flacco4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton48760
Royce Freeman55420
DaeSean Hamilton22250
Noah Fant23160
Fred Brown1150
Phillip Lindsay2350
Emmanuel Sanders1300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.14%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.35
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.98