Closing spread
DEN -1
Total
41
Model margin
+3.0est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Broncos
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.063EPA / play-0.054
- 45.7%Success rate40.3%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.019
- -0.046EPA / rush-0.110
- 11.6%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.45CPOE-2.47
- 39.4%Third-down rate32.0%
- 74.8%Red-zone TD rate50.1%
- 1.99Points / drive1.47
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. DEN are 7-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 13/16 | 144 | 0 | 1 |
| Marcus Mariota | 7/18 | 63 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 15 | 28 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Dalyn Dawkins | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Humphries | 6 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 6 | 43 | 0 |
| Corey Davis | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| A.J. Brown | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Dion Lewis | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 18/28 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Lindsay | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Royce Freeman | 11 | 34 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 4 | 8 | 76 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 5 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Noah Fant | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Fred Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.11
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.35
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.98