2022 · Week 10

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Russell Wilson

10·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Ryan Tannehill

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

TEN -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+0.5est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapTitans
  • -0.077EPA / play-0.066
  • 39.4%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.050EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.124EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.65CPOE-0.94
  • 29.1%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 61.5%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 1.34Points / drive1.46
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DEN lead 6–4 since 1999

Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1TEN @ DEN12–20DEN
2020 · W1TEN @ DEN16–14TEN
2019 · W6TEN @ DEN0–16DEN
2016 · W14DEN @ TEN10–13TEN
2013 · W14TEN @ DEN28–51DEN
2011 · W3DEN @ TEN14–17TEN
2010 · W4DEN @ TEN26–20DEN
2007 · W11TEN @ DEN20–34DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–TEN
TENQ1 15:0042Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:28635Punt0–0
TENQ1 11:41613Punt0–0
DENQ1 8:3147Punt0–0
TENQ1 7:16428Punt0–0
DENQ1 5:46718Punt0–0
TENQ1 1:3738Punt0–0
DENQ1 0:03637Punt0–0
TENQ2 12:2836Punt0–0
DENQ2 11:21685Touchdown7–0
TENQ2 8:213-11Punt7–0
DENQ2 6:181126Field goal10–0
TENQ2 2:231370Touchdown10–7
DENQ2 0:1200End of half10–7
DENQ3 15:0035Punt10–7
TENQ3 13:54419Punt10–7
DENQ3 11:26732Punt10–7
TENQ3 6:53380Touchdown10–14
DENQ3 5:141012Punt10–14
TENQ3 0:5033Punt10–14
DENQ4 14:4952Punt10–14
TENQ4 11:19625Turnover10–14
DENQ4 7:3439Punt10–14
TENQ4 6:51963Field goal10–17
DENQ4 2:591146Turnover10–17
TENQ4 0:1111End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson21/4228611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray9242.70
Melvin Gordon7243.40
Chase Edmonds294.50
Russell Wilson781.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Courtland Sutton611660
Jalen Virgil11661
Kendall Hinton45620
Melvin Gordon46460
Latavius Murray33230
Eric Saubert11120
Greg Dulcich14110
Eric Tomlinson0100
Chase Edmonds1200
Jerry Jeudy0100
Tyrie Cleveland0300
Montrell Washington0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill19/3625520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Derrick Henry19532.80
Ryan Tannehill2126.00
Dontrell Hilliard122.00
Malik Willis1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine581192
Austin Hooper57410
Chig Okonkwo12410
Treylon Burks36240
Derrick Henry23140
Robert Woods27100
Dontrell Hilliard1260
Geoff Swaim0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

7.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+0.45