Closing spread
TEN -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+0.5est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.077EPA / play-0.066
- 39.4%Success rate41.2%
- -0.050EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.124EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.65CPOE-0.94
- 29.1%Third-down rate37.1%
- 61.5%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 1.34Points / drive1.46
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 6–4 since 1999
Meetings average 39.1 points. TEN are 3-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 21/42 | 286 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | 24 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtland Sutton | 6 | 11 | 66 | 0 |
| Jalen Virgil | 1 | 1 | 66 | 1 |
| Kendall Hinton | 4 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 4 | 6 | 46 | 0 |
| Latavius Murray | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Greg Dulcich | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Eric Tomlinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyrie Cleveland | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Montrell Washington | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/36 | 255 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Henry | 19 | 53 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Malik Willis | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 5 | 8 | 119 | 2 |
| Austin Hooper | 5 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 1 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 2 | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| Dontrell Hilliard | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.70
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+0.45