Closing spread
GB -14.5
Total
46
Model margin
+5.3est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.043EPA / play+0.076
- 40.5%Success rate45.9%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.186
- -0.145EPA / rush-0.117
- 7.9%Explosive rate8.2%
- -3.37CPOE+5.31
- 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
- 72.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.59Points / drive1.91
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. GB are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 34/54 | 331 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 4 | 53 | 13.3 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 12 | 50 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Pettigrew | 8 | 11 | 91 | 0 |
| Calvin Johnson | 6 | 11 | 86 | 2 |
| Tony Scheffler | 6 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Jahvid Best | 5 | 7 | 34 | 0 |
| Bryant Johnson | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Kevin Smith | 4 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Stefan Logan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 12/17 | 181 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 9 | 33 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | 20 | 6.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Driver | 3 | 3 | 89 | 1 |
| Jermichael Finley | 4 | 5 | 36 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 5 | 25 | 1 |
| Donald Lee | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| James Jones | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
1.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
63.1%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+5.29