2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Shaun Hill

26·28

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 52°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

GB -14.5

Total

46

Model margin

+5.3est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Lions

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapPackers
  • -0.043EPA / play+0.076
  • 40.5%Success rate45.9%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.186
  • -0.145EPA / rush-0.117
  • 7.9%Explosive rate8.2%
  • -3.37CPOE+5.31
  • 40.4%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 72.0%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.91
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 36–19 since 1999

Meetings average 45.8 points. GB are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7GB @ DET17–20DET
2025 · W13GB @ DET31–24GB
2025 · W1DET @ GB13–27GB
2024 · W14GB @ DET31–34DET
2024 · W9DET @ GB24–14DET
2023 · W12GB @ DET29–22GB
2023 · W4DET @ GB34–20DET
2022 · W18DET @ GB20–16DET

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDET–GB
GBQ1 15:00550Touchdown0–7
DETQ1 12:401171Turnover0–7
GBQ1 6:59520Punt0–7
DETQ1 3:29868Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 14:1439Punt7–7
DETQ2 12:4448Turnover7–7
GBQ2 11:3947Touchdown7–14
DETQ2 10:0539Punt7–14
GBQ2 8:20468Touchdown7–21
DETQ2 6:481495Touchdown14–21
GBQ2 0:0800Turnover14–21
DETQ2 0:0200Turnover14–21
DETQ3 15:0030Opp touchdown14–28
DETQ3 14:341148Field goal17–28
GBQ3 9:26739Turnover17–28
DETQ3 6:04864Field goal20–28
GBQ3 1:433-5Punt20–28
DETQ3 0:08512Field goal23–28
GBQ4 13:3500Field goal23–28
DETQ4 13:30512Field goal26–28
GBQ4 11:5110Turnover26–28
DETQ4 11:341044Punt26–28
GBQ4 6:321174End of half26–28

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Shaun Hill34/5433122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shaun Hill45313.30
Jahvid Best12504.20
Kevin Smith3124.00
Calvin Johnson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Pettigrew811910
Calvin Johnson611862
Tony Scheffler610630
Jahvid Best57340
Bryant Johnson35230
Kevin Smith45220
Stefan Logan0100

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers12/1718132

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson9333.70
Aaron Rodgers3206.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Donald Driver33891
Jermichael Finley45361
Greg Jennings25251
Donald Lee11150
James Jones11150
Brandon Jackson1110
Jordy Nelson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.57.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

1.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

63.1%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+5.29