2010 · Week 4

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

31·24

Raiders

Oakland

QB Bruce Gradkowski

Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 71°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

HOU -3.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

OAK perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Raiders winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

HOU lead 9–5 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W16LV @ HOU21–23HOU
2022 · W7HOU @ LV20–38RAIDERS
2019 · W8OAK @ HOU24–27HOU
2016 · playoffsOAK @ HOU14–27HOU
2016 · W11HOU @ OAK20–27RAIDERS
2014 · W2HOU @ OAK30–14HOU
2013 · W11OAK @ HOU28–23RAIDERS
2011 · W5OAK @ HOU25–20RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–OAK
LVQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:54690Touchdown7–0
LVQ1 10:06975Touchdown7–7
HOUQ1 6:14634Punt7–7
LVQ1 3:3734Punt7–7
HOUQ1 2:09537Touchdown14–7
LVQ1 0:23514Punt14–7
HOUQ2 13:014-1Punt14–7
LVQ2 11:37964Touchdown14–14
HOUQ2 6:50614Punt14–14
LVQ2 3:28513Punt14–14
HOUQ2 1:3738Punt14–14
LVQ2 1:10317Turnover14–14
HOUQ2 0:32332Missed field goal14–14
HOUQ3 15:00280Touchdown21–14
LVQ3 14:16728Punt21–14
HOUQ3 10:151378Field goal24–14
LVQ3 2:3510Turnover24–14
HOUQ3 2:14535Touchdown31–14
LVQ4 14:54981Touchdown31–21
HOUQ4 10:5635Punt31–21
LVQ4 9:56961Field goal31–24
HOUQ4 6:13518Punt31–24
LVQ4 3:04714Turnover31–24
HOUQ4 1:40312End of half31–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub16/2919220

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster161318.21
Derrick Ward12806.71
Steve Slaton5377.40
Matt Schaub310.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joel Dreessen58731
Arian Foster34561
Kevin Walter46350
Jacoby Jones13120
Owen Daniels1380
Steve Slaton2280
Derrick Ward0100
David Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

46.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.16

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.