Closing spread
HOU -3.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
HOU lead 9–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. OAK are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 16/29 | 192 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 16 | 131 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Derrick Ward | 12 | 80 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Steve Slaton | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Dreessen | 5 | 8 | 73 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 4 | 56 | 1 |
| Kevin Walter | 4 | 6 | 35 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.