Closing spread
IND -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+0.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.095EPA / play+0.019
- 47.2%Success rate44.9%
- +0.182EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.067EPA / rush+0.030
- 6.7%Explosive rate10.6%
- +3.98CPOE+1.85
- 44.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 71.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.12Points / drive1.86
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 27–22 since 1999
JAX have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. JAX are 31-17-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 33/46 | 352 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 16 | 63 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 2 | -4 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 15 | 19 | 196 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 7 | 11 | 68 | 1 |
| Austin Collie | 5 | 7 | 39 | 1 |
| Blair White | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brody Eldridge | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 17/22 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 26 | 105 | 4.0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 1 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Tiquan Underwood | 3 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Kassim Osgood | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
4.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.3%
Expected total
48.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.47