2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

28·31

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

IND -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+0.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapJaguars
  • +0.095EPA / play+0.019
  • 47.2%Success rate44.9%
  • +0.182EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.067EPA / rush+0.030
  • 6.7%Explosive rate10.6%
  • +3.98CPOE+1.85
  • 44.8%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 71.1%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.12Points / drive1.86
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 27–23 since 1999

JAX have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.4 points. JAX are 32-17-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8IND @ JAX7–42JAX
2025 · W17JAX @ IND23–17JAX
2025 · W14IND @ JAX19–36JAX
2024 · W18JAX @ IND23–26IND
2024 · W5IND @ JAX34–37JAX
2023 · W6IND @ JAX20–37JAX
2023 · W1JAX @ IND31–21JAX
2022 · W6JAX @ IND27–34IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–JAX
INDQ1 15:001154Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 8:37976Touchdown7–7
INDQ1 3:303-6Punt7–7
JAXQ1 2:21745Touchdown7–14
INDQ2 13:401185Touchdown14–14
JAXQ2 7:41640Punt14–14
INDQ2 4:1338Punt14–14
JAXQ2 2:46925Punt14–14
INDQ2 0:0100End of half14–14
JAXQ3 15:00418Punt14–14
INDQ3 12:11741Turnover14–14
JAXQ3 8:26749Touchdown14–21
INDQ3 4:371164Turnover14–21
JAXQ4 13:4331Punt14–21
INDQ4 11:501196Touchdown21–21
JAXQ4 7:35947Touchdown21–28
INDQ4 2:09865Touchdown28–28
JAXQ4 0:48536Field goal28–31

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning33/4635221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai16633.92
Peyton Manning1-1-1.00
Mike Hart2-4-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne15191960
Dallas Clark711681
Austin Collie57391
Blair White24200
Joseph Addai33190
Brody Eldridge12100

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard17/2216320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Maurice Jones-Drew261054.01
David Garrard5448.81
Mike Thomas11919.00
Rashad Jennings362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas57680
Tiquan Underwood35410
Marcedes Lewis22221
Maurice Jones-Drew22161
Rashad Jennings2290
Kassim Osgood1130
Mike Sims-Walker0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

4.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.3%

Expected total

48.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.47