Closing spread
SEA -1.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.8est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- DoubtfulE.J. WilsonDEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon MebaneDTCalf· Limited
- QuestionableMarcus TrufantCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableSean LocklearTKnee· DNP
- ProbableChris ClemonsDEAnkle· Limited
- ProbableAaron CurryLBHamstring· Full
- ProbableBen HamiltonGKnee· Full
- ProbableMike WilliamsWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableRussell OkungTAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutBilly BajemaTEKnee· DNP
- OutChris ChamberlainLBToe· DNP
- OutClifton RyanDTmigraines· DNP
- OutDarell ScottDTAnkle· DNP
- OutMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulDarian StewartSHamstring· DNP
- DoubtfulLaurent RobinsonWRFoot· DNP
- QuestionableOshiomogho AtogweSThigh· Limited
- QuestionableSteven JacksonRBGroin· Limited
- ProbableCraig DahlSHead· Full
- ProbableKeith TostonRBShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 12:50 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:58 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SEA | Q1 5:49 | 14 | 76 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 13:11 | 7 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 9:12 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 5:44 | 3 | 9 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 4:28 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| SEA | Q2 3:44 | 9 | 38 | Turnover on downs | 3–7 |
| LA | Q2 1:01 | 5 | 45 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–10 |
| LA | Q3 13:38 | 8 | 82 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q3 10:39 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q3 8:15 | 5 | 9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q3 5:26 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:27 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q3 1:09 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 14:50 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q4 13:46 | 4 | 38 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 12:28 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 3–17 |
| SEA | Q4 8:30 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q4 7:17 | 8 | 29 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q4 2:35 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| LA | Q4 2:24 | 4 | -8 | Turnover on downs | 3–20 |
| SEA | Q4 1:05 | 4 | 33 | End of half | 3–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 20/36 | 191 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Forsett | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Stokley | 4 | 8 | 62 | 0 |
| Mike Williams | 4 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Golden Tate | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Deon Butler | 2 | 5 | 20 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Deion Branch | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Justin Forsett | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Chris Baker | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.30
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.79
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.