2010 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
PHI -5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.1est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.078
- 40.8%Success rate44.2%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.104
- -0.148EPA / rush+0.029
- 9.3%Explosive rate11.1%
- -4.10CPOE+4.09
- 29.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
- 1.31Points / drive1.97
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 8/19 | 125 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 18 | 70 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 11 | 55 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Armstrong | 1 | 3 | 57 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 2 | 5 | 37 | 1 |
| Clinton Portis | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Banks | 1 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kolb | 22/35 | 201 | 1 | 1 |
| Mike Vick | 5/7 | 49 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 |
| Mike Vick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 12 | 15 | 110 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 3 | 6 | 27 | 1 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 7 | 19 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Bell | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.09