2010 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

17·12

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.1est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapEagles
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.078
  • 40.8%Success rate44.2%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.104
  • -0.148EPA / rush+0.029
  • 9.3%Explosive rate11.1%
  • -4.10CPOE+4.09
  • 29.2%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate62.2%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.97
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–21 since 1999

Meetings average 45.6 points. PHI are 27-26-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI
2023 · W4WAS @ PHI31–34PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0037Punt0–0
WASQ1 13:12324Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 12:03422Punt7–0
WASQ1 9:12978Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 4:471053Field goal14–3
WASQ2 14:551182Field goal17–3
PHIQ2 9:111684Field goal17–6
WASQ2 0:1900End of half17–6
WASQ3 15:00820Turnover17–6
PHIQ3 12:0430Punt17–6
WASQ3 11:34618Punt17–6
PHIQ3 8:26970Turnover17–6
WASQ3 4:0032Punt17–6
PHIQ3 1:343-6Punt17–6
WASQ4 14:5137Punt17–6
PHIQ4 13:30626Punt17–6
WASQ4 10:13615Punt17–6
PHIQ4 7:411060Touchdown17–12
WASQ4 4:10848Punt17–12
PHIQ4 1:07937Turnover17–12

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb8/1912511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain18703.91
Clinton Portis11555.00
Donovan McNabb5397.80
Santana Moss155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anthony Armstrong13570
Chris Cooley25371
Clinton Portis22260
Joey Galloway1350
Mike Sellers1250
Santana Moss0100
Fred Davis0100
Brandon Banks11-50

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kevin Kolb22/3520111
Mike Vick5/74900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16644.00
Kevin Kolb22110.50
Mike Vick3175.70
Mike Bell362.00
DeSean Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
LeSean McCoy12151100
Jason Avant45310
Brent Celek36271
DeSean Jackson37190
Jeremy Maclin12150
Mike Bell1250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +53.7%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.60
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.09