Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
33
Model margin
+1.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.097EPA / play-0.249
- 39.0%Success rate33.5%
- -0.053EPA / dropback-0.274
- -0.166EPA / rush-0.215
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
- +0.87CPOE-7.94
- 33.1%Third-down rate30.0%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
- 1.43Points / drive0.77
- 3.2%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Collins | 6/16 | 32 | 0 | 4 |
| Caleb Hanie | 2/3 | 19 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 22 | 166 | 7.5 | 2 |
| Chester Taylor | 18 | 43 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Caleb Hanie | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Aromashodu | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Clausen | 9/22 | 61 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Moore | 5/10 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 30 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Clausen | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| David Gettis | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Gettis | 3 | 6 | 32 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 1 | 8 | 16 | 0 |
| David Clowney | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Armanti Edwards | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.46
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32