2010 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Todd Collins

23·6

Panthers

Carolina

QB Jimmy Clausen

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

33

Model margin

+1.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.097EPA / play-0.249
  • 39.0%Success rate33.5%
  • -0.053EPA / dropback-0.274
  • -0.166EPA / rush-0.215
  • 8.3%Explosive rate8.1%
  • +0.87CPOE-7.94
  • 33.1%Third-down rate30.0%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate44.3%
  • 1.43Points / drive0.77
  • 3.2%Turnover rate3.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CAR
CHIQ1 15:00438Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 13:15860Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 7:52168Touchdown14–3
CARQ1 7:3530Turnover14–3
CHIQ1 6:20417Field goal17–3
CARQ1 4:373-2Punt17–3
CHIQ1 2:3838Turnover17–3
CARQ1 2:0359Punt17–3
CHIQ2 15:00829Turnover17–3
CARQ2 11:00410Punt17–3
CHIQ2 9:483-1Punt17–3
CARQ2 8:0345Punt17–3
CHIQ2 5:363-3Turnover17–3
CARQ2 4:2331Punt17–3
CHIQ2 2:46632Punt17–3
CARQ3 15:00613Punt17–3
CHIQ3 12:0534Punt17–3
CARQ3 11:1134Punt17–3
CHIQ3 9:4835Punt17–3
CARQ3 8:50425Missed field goal17–3
CHIQ3 6:353-3Turnover17–3
CARQ3 5:0778Field goal17–6
CHIQ3 2:1544Punt17–6
CARQ4 14:493-21Punt17–6
CHIQ4 13:131137Punt17–6
CARQ4 6:4230Punt17–6
CHIQ4 6:03515Field goal20–6
CARQ4 3:3620Turnover20–6
CHIQ4 3:233-2Field goal23–6
CARQ4 1:56735Turnover23–6
CHIQ4 0:0400End of half23–6

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Todd Collins6/163204
Caleb Hanie2/31900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte221667.52
Chester Taylor18432.40
Devin Hester11010.00
Caleb Hanie1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte22220
Johnny Knox14140
Chester Taylor23110
Earl Bennett1140
Devin Hester2500
Devin Aromashodu0100
Greg Olsen0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Clausen9/226101
Matt Moore5/103502

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams12514.30
Jonathan Stewart8303.80
Armanti Edwards177.00
Jimmy Clausen200.00
David Gettis1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
David Gettis36320
Jeff King33200
Brandon LaFell18160
David Clowney23140
DeAngelo Williams3380
Jonathan Stewart1140
Dante Rosario1220
Armanti Edwards0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.54.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.47%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.6%

Expected total

41.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.46
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.32