2010 · Week 5

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Kyle Orton

17·31

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Joe Flacco

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 67°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

BAL -8

Total

39.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Ravens

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapRavens
  • -0.017EPA / play+0.028
  • 39.3%Success rate41.8%
  • +0.089EPA / dropback+0.133
  • -0.205EPA / rush-0.102
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
  • -2.61CPOE+2.93
  • 31.6%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 61.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
  • 1.70Points / drive1.78
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

BAL lead 11–5 since 1999

BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W9DEN @ BAL10–41BAL
2022 · W13DEN @ BAL9–10BAL
2021 · W4BAL @ DEN23–7BAL
2018 · W3DEN @ BAL14–27BAL
2015 · W1BAL @ DEN13–19DEN
2013 · W1BAL @ DEN27–49DEN
2012 · playoffsBAL @ DEN38–35BAL
2012 · W15DEN @ BAL34–17DEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–BAL
BALQ1 15:001074Turnover on downs0–0
DENQ1 9:31724Punt0–0
BALQ1 5:21973Touchdown0–7
DENQ1 0:45618Punt0–7
BALQ2 12:46647Touchdown0–14
DENQ2 10:1600Field goal0–14
BALQ2 10:0932Field goal0–17
DENQ2 9:21523Punt0–17
BALQ2 7:2131Punt0–17
DENQ2 6:27721Punt0–17
BALQ2 2:4233Punt0–17
DENQ2 1:57674Touchdown7–17
BALQ2 0:4823End of half7–17
DENQ3 15:00428Punt7–17
BALQ3 13:11832Punt7–17
DENQ3 9:42421Punt7–17
BALQ3 6:461567Touchdown7–24
DENQ4 14:21761Field goal10–24
BALQ4 11:501190Touchdown10–31
DENQ4 5:06517Punt10–31
BALQ4 4:05624Punt10–31
DENQ4 1:51659Touchdown17–31
BALQ4 0:3500End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyle Orton23/3831420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Laurence Maroney6274.50
Correll Buckhalter5132.60
Andre Brown2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Lloyd5141352
Jabar Gaffney911870
Eddie Royal45310
Daniel Graham11280
Correll Buckhalter13120
Demaryius Thomas22120
Dan Gronkowski1290

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joe Flacco14/2519600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ray Rice271334.92
Willis McGahee10676.71
Joe Flacco5204.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ed Dickson12580
Derrick Mason36470
Ray Rice44260
T.J. Houshmandzadeh23240
Todd Heap15220
Anquan Boldin1380

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.5%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.04