Closing spread
BAL -8
Total
39.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.028
- 39.3%Success rate41.8%
- +0.089EPA / dropback+0.133
- -0.205EPA / rush-0.102
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.3%
- -2.61CPOE+2.93
- 31.6%Third-down rate38.4%
- 61.7%Red-zone TD rate57.9%
- 1.70Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 11–5 since 1999
BAL have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.1 points. BAL are 11-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 23/38 | 314 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laurence Maroney | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Andre Brown | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Lloyd | 5 | 14 | 135 | 2 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 9 | 11 | 87 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Daniel Graham | 1 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dan Gronkowski | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 14/25 | 196 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 27 | 133 | 4.9 | 2 |
| Willis McGahee | 10 | 67 | 6.7 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 58 | 0 |
| Derrick Mason | 3 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Ray Rice | 4 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| T.J. Houshmandzadeh | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Todd Heap | 1 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.55
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.04