2010 · Week 5
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.0est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.079
- 45.9%Success rate40.8%
- +0.186EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.148
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
- +5.31CPOE-4.10
- 41.3%Third-down rate29.2%
- 58.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
- 1.91Points / drive1.31
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 9–4 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27/46 | 293 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 10 | 115 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Jones | 4 | 8 | 65 | 0 |
| Donald Driver | 4 | 8 | 58 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 4 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Jordy Nelson | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Brandon Jackson | 5 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Donald Lee | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Tom Crabtree | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 26/49 | 357 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 16 | 40 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 7 | 12 | 118 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 3 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Chris Cooley | 7 | 12 | 69 | 0 |
| Joey Galloway | 3 | 7 | 28 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 4 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.03