2010 · Week 5

Final / OT

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

13·16

Commanders

Washington

QB Donovan McNabb

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

GB -2.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.0est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapCommanders
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.079
  • 45.9%Success rate40.8%
  • +0.186EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.148
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.3%
  • +5.31CPOE-4.10
  • 41.3%Third-down rate29.2%
  • 58.4%Red-zone TD rate58.6%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.31
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 9–4 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. WAS are 5-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W2WAS @ GB18–27GB
2022 · W7GB @ WAS21–23WAS
2021 · W7WAS @ GB10–24GB
2019 · W14WAS @ GB15–20GB
2018 · W3GB @ WAS17–31WAS
2016 · W11GB @ WAS24–42WAS
2015 · playoffsGB @ WAS35–18GB
2013 · W2WAS @ GB20–38GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–WAS
GBQ1 15:00225Turnover0–0
WASQ1 14:043-1Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:17690Touchdown7–0
WASQ1 8:59518Punt7–0
GBQ1 6:27523Punt7–0
WASQ1 4:4547Punt7–0
GBQ1 2:531090Turnover on downs7–0
WASQ2 12:11532Punt7–0
GBQ2 8:563-1Field goal10–0
WASQ2 7:30519Punt10–0
GBQ2 4:3630Punt10–0
WASQ2 4:111273Field goal10–3
GBQ2 0:1330End of half10–3
WASQ3 15:00624Punt10–3
GBQ3 11:55870Field goal13–3
WASQ3 7:3430Punt13–3
GBQ3 6:42739Missed field goal13–3
WASQ3 2:14720Turnover on downs13–3
GBQ4 14:0932Punt13–3
WASQ4 12:11260Touchdown13–10
GBQ4 11:35533Punt13–10
WASQ4 9:09937Missed field goal13–10
GBQ4 6:39412Punt13–10
WASQ4 3:58653Field goal13–13
GBQ4 1:07344Missed field goal13–13
WASQ4 0:0110Turnover13–13
GBOT3-5Punt13–13
WASOT420Punt13–13
GBOT25Turnover13–13
WASOT711Field goal13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers27/4629311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Brandon Jackson1011511.50
Aaron Rodgers4307.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
James Jones48650
Donald Driver48580
Andrew Quarless46510
Jordy Nelson35420
Brandon Jackson56250
Donald Lee22221
Greg Jennings25220
Tom Crabtree1230

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Donovan McNabb26/4935711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain16402.50
Donovan McNabb4102.50
Keiland Williams111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss7121180
Anthony Armstrong37841
Chris Cooley712690
Joey Galloway37280
Ryan Torain47270
Mike Sellers13220
Keiland Williams1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.8%4.6%3.0%7.4%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.52
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.03