Closing spread
IND -7.5
Total
46
Model margin
+1.9est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.034EPA / play+0.095
- 42.3%Success rate47.2%
- +0.099EPA / dropback+0.182
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.067
- 10.1%Explosive rate6.7%
- -1.87CPOE+3.98
- 37.4%Third-down rate44.8%
- 54.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
- 1.70Points / drive2.12
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Cassel | 16/29 | 156 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 16 | 87 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Thomas Jones | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Cassel | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 4 | 50 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 8 | 33 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 3 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Leonard Pope | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Terrance Copper | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/44 | 244 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 17 | 50 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Wayne | 6 | 11 | 75 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 6 | 14 | 57 | 0 |
| Austin Collie | 5 | 6 | 48 | 0 |
| Joseph Addai | 5 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Dallas Clark | 3 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Mike Hart | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.89