2010 · Week 5

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Matt Cassel

9·19

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

Lucas Oil Stadium · closed · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -7.5

Total

46

Model margin

+1.9est.

IND perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Colts

Win probability

  • Colts
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Colts winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapColts
  • +0.034EPA / play+0.095
  • 42.3%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.099EPA / dropback+0.182
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.067
  • 10.1%Explosive rate6.7%
  • -1.87CPOE+3.98
  • 37.4%Third-down rate44.8%
  • 54.6%Red-zone TD rate71.1%
  • 1.70Points / drive2.12
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 12–6 since 1999

KC have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. IND are 13-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2IND @ KC30–33KC
2025 · W12IND @ KC20–23KC
2022 · W3KC @ IND17–20IND
2019 · W5IND @ KC19–13IND
2018 · playoffsIND @ KC13–31KC
2016 · W8KC @ IND30–14KC
2013 · playoffsKC @ IND44–45IND
2013 · W16IND @ KC23–7IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–IND
INDQ1 15:0000Field goal0–0
INDQ1 15:00423Field goal0–0
INDQ1 12:21412Field goal0–3
KCQ1 10:041668Turnover on downs0–3
INDQ1 2:041586Field goal0–6
KCQ2 9:1448Punt0–6
INDQ2 6:53418Punt0–6
KCQ2 3:54746Turnover0–6
INDQ2 1:00528Turnover on downs0–6
KCQ2 0:18219Field goal3–6
INDQ2 0:0200End of half3–6
KCQ3 15:0037Punt3–6
INDQ3 12:41951Field goal3–9
KCQ3 8:31755Field goal6–9
INDQ3 4:353-3Turnover6–9
KCQ3 3:4430Field goal9–9
INDQ3 3:261237Field goal9–12
KCQ4 14:4032Punt9–12
INDQ4 13:33726Punt9–12
KCQ4 11:0937Punt9–12
INDQ4 9:351366Touchdown9–19
KCQ4 4:021149Missed field goal9–19
INDQ4 1:1200End of half9–19

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Cassel16/2915600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles16875.40
Thomas Jones8192.40
Dexter McCluster133.00
Matt Cassel111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Moeaki44500
Dwayne Bowe28330
Chris Chambers23230
Dexter McCluster24150
Jamaal Charles36140
Leonard Pope11110
Terrance Copper23100

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/4424401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai17502.90
Mike Hart11504.51
Peyton Manning3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Reggie Wayne611750
Pierre Garcon614570
Austin Collie56480
Joseph Addai56390
Dallas Clark36200
Mike Hart1150

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+1.89