Closing spread
NO -6.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.039EPA / play-0.220
- 46.2%Success rate37.1%
- +0.121EPA / dropback-0.248
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.165
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- +5.83CPOE-9.59
- 48.8%Third-down rate27.4%
- 58.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.06
- 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/39 | 279 | 2 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 7 | 12 | 97 | 0 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 4 | 57 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 5 | 7 | 26 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Hall | 17/27 | 168 | 0 | 1 |
| Derek Anderson | 1/2 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wells | 20 | 35 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 93 | 0 |
| Ben Patrick | 5 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Stephen Williams | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Wells | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Max Komar | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Stephen Spach | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Dray | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.1%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.69
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.86