2010 · Week 5

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

20·30

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Max Hall

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

NO -6.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.039EPA / play-0.220
  • 46.2%Success rate37.1%
  • +0.121EPA / dropback-0.248
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.165
  • 8.0%Explosive rate8.3%
  • +5.83CPOE-9.59
  • 48.8%Third-down rate27.4%
  • 58.2%Red-zone TD rate45.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.06
  • 2.7%Turnover rate3.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1ARI @ NO20–13ARI
2022 · W7NO @ ARI34–42ARI
2019 · W8ARI @ NO9–31NO
2016 · W15NO @ ARI48–41NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2013 · W3ARI @ NO7–31NO
2009 · playoffsARI @ NO14–45NO
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ARI
ARIQ1 15:0035Turnover0–0
NOQ1 12:56636Field goal3–0
ARIQ1 9:49615Punt3–0
NOQ1 7:021171Touchdown10–0
ARIQ1 1:30931Field goal10–3
NOQ2 11:15722Punt10–3
ARIQ2 7:16935Punt10–3
NOQ2 3:2910Turnover10–3
ARIQ2 3:2131Touchdown10–10
NOQ2 2:19558Field goal13–10
ARIQ2 1:1039End of half13–10
NOQ3 15:003-2Punt13–10
ARIQ3 13:21624Field goal13–13
NOQ3 9:041471Missed field goal13–13
ARIQ3 1:27954Field goal13–16
NOQ4 11:392-1Opp touchdown13–23
NOQ4 10:39415Turnover13–23
ARIQ4 9:0439Punt13–23
NOQ4 7:2438Punt13–23
ARIQ4 5:0936Punt13–23
NOQ4 3:25880Touchdown20–23
ARIQ4 1:4935Punt20–29
NOQ4 0:2410Opp touchdown20–30
NOQ4 0:1000End of half20–30

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3927923

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ladell Betts10444.40
Chris Ivory10393.90
Drew Brees221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston712970
Devery Henderson46610
Robert Meachem44571
Jeremy Shockey35301
Ladell Betts57260
Lance Moore1480

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Max Hall17/2716801
Derek Anderson1/2600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Wells20351.80
Tim Hightower461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald79930
Ben Patrick55300
Andre Roberts23270
LaRod Stephens-Howling1180
Stephen Williams1260
Chris Wells1150
Max Komar1350
Stephen Spach0200
Tim Hightower0100
Jim Dray0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.06%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.1%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.66
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.69
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.86