Closing spread
NO -8
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Saints
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.020EPA / play+0.115
- 41.6%Success rate47.2%
- +0.035EPA / dropback+0.209
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.077
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
- +3.74CPOE+5.36
- 35.3%Third-down rate45.1%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
- 1.71Points / drive2.21
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 18/35 | 187 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashard Mendenhall | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 1 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 5 | 6 | 64 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 3 | 6 | 36 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/46 | 342 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khiry Robinson | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 11 | 28 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 6 | 21 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Graham | 9 | 15 | 134 | 2 |
| Marques Colston | 5 | 8 | 71 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 6 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 2 | 2 | 34 | 1 |
| Benjamin Watson | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
43.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.81