2013 · Week 3

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

7·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -8

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.8est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSaints
  • -0.020EPA / play+0.115
  • 41.6%Success rate47.2%
  • +0.035EPA / dropback+0.209
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.077
  • 8.5%Explosive rate9.5%
  • +3.74CPOE+5.36
  • 35.3%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate64.9%
  • 1.71Points / drive2.21
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1ARI @ NO20–13ARI
2022 · W7NO @ ARI34–42ARI
2019 · W8ARI @ NO9–31NO
2016 · W15NO @ ARI48–41NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2010 · W5NO @ ARI20–30ARI
2009 · playoffsARI @ NO14–45NO
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NO
ARIQ1 15:001275Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 9:13880Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 5:2839Punt7–7
NOQ1 3:15720Punt7–7
ARIQ2 14:44837Punt7–7
NOQ2 11:253-2Punt7–7
ARIQ2 10:21414Punt7–7
NOQ2 8:5538Punt7–7
ARIQ2 6:423-8Punt7–7
NOQ2 5:08750Touchdown7–14
ARIQ2 2:5236Punt7–14
NOQ2 1:4336Punt7–14
ARIQ2 1:19714Punt7–14
NOQ2 0:3100End of half7–14
NOQ3 15:001051Turnover7–14
ARIQ3 10:16520Punt7–14
NOQ3 7:51767Field goal7–17
ARIQ3 4:0342Punt7–17
NOQ3 2:00734Touchdown7–24
ARIQ4 14:42662Turnover7–24
NOQ4 11:561263Touchdown7–31
ARIQ4 5:25316Turnover7–31
NOQ4 4:26549End of half7–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer18/3518702

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashard Mendenhall9293.20
Alfonso Smith3279.01
Andre Ellington3196.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald56640
Michael Floyd46490
Andre Ellington36360
Rob Housler13130
Rashard Mendenhall11120
Alfonso Smith1170
Andre Roberts1460
Stepfan Taylor1120
Jaron Brown0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees29/4634231

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Khiry Robinson4389.50
Pierre Thomas11282.50
Drew Brees6213.51
Darren Sproles3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Graham9151342
Marques Colston58710
Darren Sproles46390
Pierre Thomas66390
Robert Meachem22341
Benjamin Watson12140
Lance Moore1360
Kenny Stills0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +83.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

43.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.81