Closing spread
ARI -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play+0.133
- 44.6%Success rate47.7%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.059
- 10.0%Explosive rate10.8%
- +2.78CPOE+4.51
- 48.9%Third-down rate47.4%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 2.09Points / drive2.34
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/48 | 355 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 9 | 24 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 8 | 19 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 8 | 9 | 98 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 1 | 3 | 63 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 4 | 7 | 41 | 1 |
| Marques Colston | 3 | 7 | 29 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 19/32 | 307 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 12 | 69 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 37 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 8 | 87 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 4 | 5 | 82 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 55 | 1 |
| John Brown | 4 | 7 | 46 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.0%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.35
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.84