Closing spread
NO -4
Total
49.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play+0.011
- 42.9%Success rate47.6%
- +0.012EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.116EPA / rush-0.101
- 7.2%Explosive rate7.6%
- +0.38CPOE+4.63
- 36.9%Third-down rate46.0%
- 73.6%Red-zone TD rate69.1%
- 1.68Points / drive1.69
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 21 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 14:11 | 4 | 8 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NO | Q1 12:00 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 4:58 | 13 | 74 | Touchdown | 7–14 |
| ARI | Q2 13:47 | 8 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 10:01 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 8:36 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 5:48 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–14 |
| ARI | Q2 3:34 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| NO | Q2 3:20 | 4 | 55 | Touchdown | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q2 1:56 | 9 | 49 | Missed field goal | 14–21 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 9 | Turnover | 14–21 |
| NO | Q3 12:46 | 2 | 7 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| ARI | Q3 12:02 | 10 | 85 | Touchdown | 21–28 |
| NO | Q3 6:14 | 8 | 62 | Field goal | 21–31 |
| ARI | Q3 0:50 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 9:11 | 4 | 44 | Turnover | 24–31 |
| ARI | Q4 7:06 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 24–31 |
| NO | Q4 5:54 | 7 | 71 | End of half | 24–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 233 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 16 | 84 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Sean Morey | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Arrington | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/30 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Stecker | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 2 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| David Patten | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.5%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.07
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.41