2025 · Week 1

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

20·13

Saints

New Orleans

QB Spencer Rattler

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

ARI -6

Total

44.5

Model margin

+3.3est.

NO perspective

Push chance

2.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSaints
  • -0.014EPA / play-0.076
  • 43.0%Success rate42.4%
  • +0.042EPA / dropback-0.032
  • -0.142EPA / rush-0.155
  • 6.8%Explosive rate5.5%
  • +1.10CPOE+1.72
  • 41.6%Third-down rate39.4%
  • 56.5%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.53
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W7NO @ ARI34–42ARI
2019 · W8ARI @ NO9–31NO
2016 · W15NO @ ARI48–41NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2013 · W3ARI @ NO7–31NO
2010 · W5NO @ ARI20–30ARI
2009 · playoffsARI @ NO14–45NO
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NO
ARIQ1 15:0052Punt0–0
NOQ1 11:2733Punt0–0
ARIQ1 10:341139Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:031490Touchdown3–7
ARIQ2 14:20863Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 10:051041Field goal10–10
ARIQ2 4:581261Touchdown17–10
NOQ2 0:2816End of half17–10
NOQ3 15:00516Punt17–10
ARIQ3 12:27549Field goal20–10
NOQ3 9:161353Missed field goal20–10
ARIQ3 3:55511Punt20–10
NOQ3 0:53511Punt20–10
ARIQ4 13:511038Punt20–10
NOQ4 9:0930Punt20–10
ARIQ4 8:43722Missed field goal20–10
NOQ4 4:34855Field goal20–13
ARIQ4 2:423-9Punt20–13
NOQ4 1:491140Turnover on downs20–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray21/2916320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Trey Benson8698.60
James Conner12393.30
Kyler Murray7385.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.56711
Trey McBride69610
Tip Reiman11100
Trey Benson1160
James Conner4451
Michael Wilson1450
Zay Jones1140
Elijah Higgins1230
Greg Dortch11-20

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Spencer Rattler27/4621400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11454.11
Spencer Rattler4297.30
Kendre Miller5244.80
Devin Neal294.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Juwan Johnson811760
Chris Olave713540
Rashid Shaheed69330
Brandin Cooks34260
Devaughn Vele12130
Alvin Kamara22120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -63.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.0%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.57
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.33