Closing spread
ARI -6
Total
44.5
Model margin
+3.3est.
NO perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.076
- 43.0%Success rate42.4%
- +0.042EPA / dropback-0.032
- -0.142EPA / rush-0.155
- 6.8%Explosive rate5.5%
- +1.10CPOE+1.72
- 41.6%Third-down rate39.4%
- 56.5%Red-zone TD rate50.0%
- 1.88Points / drive1.53
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 21/29 | 163 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Benson | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 0 |
| James Conner | 12 | 39 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 5 | 6 | 71 | 1 |
| Trey McBride | 6 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Tip Reiman | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Trey Benson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Conner | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| Michael Wilson | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Elijah Higgins | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Rattler | 27/46 | 214 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 45 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Spencer Rattler | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Kendre Miller | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Devin Neal | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juwan Johnson | 8 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Chris Olave | 7 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 6 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Devaughn Vele | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.0%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-2.57
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.33