Closing spread
NO -12.5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+5.0est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.014EPA / play+0.084
- 42.7%Success rate47.0%
- +0.020EPA / dropback+0.172
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.067
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.81CPOE+3.92
- 36.0%Third-down rate43.9%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
- 1.85Points / drive2.45
- 1.7%Turnover rate0.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 19/33 | 220 | 0 | 0 |
| Brett Hundley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Kyler Murray | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Clay | 3 | 3 | 88 | 0 |
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 11 | 79 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Zach Zenner | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Maxx Williams | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Chase Edmonds | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Darrell Daniels | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Sherfield | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 34/43 | 373 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 21 | 102 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 38 | 12.7 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 11 | 11 | 112 | 1 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 3 | 63 | 1 |
| Latavius Murray | 9 | 12 | 55 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 42 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Dan Arnold | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Deonte Harty | 2 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Austin Carr | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
1.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.02