2019 · Week 8

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

9·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · astroturf

Closing spread

NO -12.5

Total

47.5

Model margin

+5.0est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSaints
  • +0.014EPA / play+0.084
  • 42.7%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.020EPA / dropback+0.172
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.067
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.81CPOE+3.92
  • 36.0%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate58.8%
  • 1.85Points / drive2.45
  • 1.7%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1ARI @ NO20–13ARI
2022 · W7NO @ ARI34–42ARI
2016 · W15NO @ ARI48–41NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2013 · W3ARI @ NO7–31NO
2010 · W5NO @ ARI20–30ARI
2009 · playoffsARI @ NO14–45NO
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NO
NOQ1 15:001146Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ1 8:54550Field goal3–0
NOQ1 5:411258Field goal3–3
ARIQ2 14:1337Punt3–3
NOQ2 12:58771Touchdown3–10
ARIQ2 8:59851Field goal6–10
NOQ2 5:18621Punt6–10
ARIQ2 2:4937Punt6–10
NOQ2 1:50860End of half6–10
ARIQ3 15:00521Punt6–10
NOQ3 12:54732Turnover6–10
ARIQ3 8:5949Turnover on downs6–10
NOQ3 7:32530Touchdown6–17
ARIQ3 5:25843Field goal9–17
NOQ3 1:42775Touchdown9–24
ARIQ4 12:4831Punt9–24
NOQ4 11:1838Punt9–24
ARIQ4 9:04752Turnover on downs9–24
NOQ4 6:43373Touchdown9–31
ARIQ4 5:183-4Punt9–31
NOQ4 3:32233End of half9–31
NOQ4 2:0015End of half9–31

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray19/3322000
Brett Hundley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian Kirk11919.00
Kyler Murray2136.50
Chase Edmonds781.10
Zach Zenner100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles Clay33880
Christian Kirk811790
Damiere Byrd25180
Zach Zenner11130
Maxx Williams1190
Larry Fitzgerald2480
Chase Edmonds2450
Darrell Daniels0100
Trent Sherfield0200

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees34/4337331

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Latavius Murray211024.91
Dwayne Washington33812.70
Teddy Bridgewater2-2-1.00
Michael Thomas1-9-9.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Thomas11111121
Taysom Hill33631
Latavius Murray912551
Ted Ginn23420
Josh Hill35390
Dan Arnold23250
Deonte Harty22170
Austin Carr1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

1.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.28
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.02