Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
-0.2est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.037EPA / play-0.081
- 45.5%Success rate40.7%
- +0.018EPA / dropback-0.079
- -0.109EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
- +1.61CPOE-1.70
- 40.9%Third-down rate35.4%
- 57.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 1.59Points / drive1.60
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 30/47 | 361 | 4 | 3 |
| Taysom Hill | 2/2 | 48 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Olave | 7 | 14 | 106 | 0 |
| Kevin White | 1 | 1 | 64 | 0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 5 | 6 | 59 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 7 | 9 | 56 | 0 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 1 | 1 | 53 | 1 |
| Juwan Johnson | 5 | 5 | 32 | 2 |
| Marquez Callaway | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Taysom Hill | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyler Murray | 20/29 | 204 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eno Benjamin | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Kyler Murray | 7 | 30 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 9 | 14 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 10 | 14 | 103 | 0 |
| Rondale Moore | 1 | 2 | 31 | 0 |
| Keaontay Ingram | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Eno Benjamin | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Dortch | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Robbie Chosen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.5%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.22