2022 · Week 7

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Andy Dalton

34·42

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kyler Murray

State Farm Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

ARI -2.5

Total

44

Model margin

-0.2est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCardinals
  • -0.037EPA / play-0.081
  • 45.5%Success rate40.7%
  • +0.018EPA / dropback-0.079
  • -0.109EPA / rush-0.084
  • 8.6%Explosive rate6.3%
  • +1.61CPOE-1.70
  • 40.9%Third-down rate35.4%
  • 57.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 1.59Points / drive1.60
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1ARI @ NO20–13ARI
2019 · W8ARI @ NO9–31NO
2016 · W15NO @ ARI48–41NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2013 · W3ARI @ NO7–31NO
2010 · W5NO @ ARI20–30ARI
2009 · playoffsARI @ NO14–45NO
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ARI
NOQ1 15:00480Touchdown7–0
ARIQ1 12:53543Field goal7–3
NOQ1 10:541570Turnover7–3
ARIQ1 2:06870Field goal7–6
NOQ2 13:15575Touchdown14–6
ARIQ2 10:291570Touchdown14–14
NOQ2 2:28210Opp touchdown14–20
NOQ2 1:50522Opp touchdown14–28
NOQ2 0:4600End of half14–28
ARIQ3 15:0035Punt14–28
NOQ3 14:00854Field goal17–28
ARIQ3 9:443-8Punt17–28
NOQ3 8:0533Punt17–28
ARIQ3 7:001290Touchdown17–35
NOQ3 0:2937Punt17–35
ARIQ4 14:495-5Punt17–35
NOQ4 12:54546Touchdown24–35
ARIQ4 11:14854Touchdown24–42
NOQ4 6:221270Touchdown31–42
ARIQ4 3:0738Punt31–42
NOQ4 2:40958Field goal34–42
ARIQ4 0:4300End of half34–42

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton30/4736143
Taysom Hill2/24800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alvin Kamara11494.50
Andy Dalton4215.30
Taysom Hill393.00
Mark Ingram461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chris Olave7141060
Kevin White11640
Tre'Quan Smith56590
Alvin Kamara79560
Rashid Shaheed11531
Juwan Johnson55322
Marquez Callaway26200
Mark Ingram33160
Taysom Hill1131

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kyler Murray20/2920410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eno Benjamin12927.71
Kyler Murray7304.30
Keaontay Ingram9141.61
Greg Dortch111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins10141030
Rondale Moore12310
Keaontay Ingram22230
Zach Ertz24210
Eno Benjamin45210
Greg Dortch1151
Robbie Chosen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.33%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.5%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.22