2016 · Week 15

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

48·41

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapCardinals
  • +0.100EPA / play-0.005
  • 48.2%Success rate45.3%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.043
  • -0.012EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +4.38CPOE-0.78
  • 49.0%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 62.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
  • 2.39Points / drive1.89
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1ARI @ NO20–13ARI
2022 · W7NO @ ARI34–42ARI
2019 · W8ARI @ NO9–31NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2013 · W3ARI @ NO7–31NO
2010 · W5NO @ ARI20–30ARI
2009 · playoffsARI @ NO14–45NO
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00773Touchdown0–7
NOQ1 12:271361Field goal3–7
ARIQ1 5:2724Turnover3–7
NOQ1 4:32819Touchdown10–7
ARIQ1 1:33938Missed field goal10–7
NOQ2 11:26918Opp touchdown10–13
NOQ2 7:08277Touchdown17–13
ARIQ2 6:11518Punt17–13
NOQ2 3:32562Touchdown24–13
ARIQ2 1:51965Touchdown24–20
NOQ2 0:4046End of half24–20
NOQ3 15:0035Punt24–20
ARIQ3 14:08417Punt24–20
NOQ3 12:031368Field goal27–20
ARIQ3 6:06651Touchdown27–27
NOQ3 3:191071Touchdown34–27
ARIQ4 12:59775Touchdown34–34
NOQ4 8:57775Touchdown41–34
ARIQ4 5:3334Turnover41–34
NOQ4 5:13715Touchdown48–34
ARIQ4 3:27780Touchdown48–41
NOQ4 2:19313End of half48–41

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees37/4838940

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram17784.60
Tim Hightower11373.42
Travaris Cadet11616.00
Drew Brees2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks781862
Willie Snead811760
Michael Thomas710521
Travaris Cadet55301
Mark Ingram24140
Tim Hightower33110
Coby Fleener23100
John Phillips1190
Brandon Coleman0100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer28/4031820

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams36321.01
David Johnson12534.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown56811
Larry Fitzgerald79570
David Johnson45550
Jermaine Gresham35420
J.J. Nelson511381
Brittan Golden22230
Darren Fells11130
Andre Ellington1190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.0%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.70