Closing spread
ARI -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.100EPA / play-0.005
- 48.2%Success rate45.3%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.043
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
- +4.38CPOE-0.78
- 49.0%Third-down rate40.4%
- 62.6%Red-zone TD rate65.4%
- 2.39Points / drive1.89
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. ARI are 5-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 37/48 | 389 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 17 | 78 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 2 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 186 | 2 |
| Willie Snead | 8 | 11 | 76 | 0 |
| Michael Thomas | 7 | 10 | 52 | 1 |
| Travaris Cadet | 5 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Coby Fleener | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| John Phillips | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 28/40 | 318 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 3 | 63 | 21.0 | 1 |
| David Johnson | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 5 | 6 | 81 | 1 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| J.J. Nelson | 5 | 11 | 38 | 1 |
| Brittan Golden | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.0%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.96
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.70