Closing spread
NO -7
Total
57
Model margin
+4.5est.
NO perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.026EPA / play+0.118
- 45.3%Success rate48.1%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.231
- -0.143EPA / rush-0.028
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.3%
- +3.71CPOE+6.47
- 36.7%Third-down rate45.6%
- 73.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
- 1.75Points / drive2.36
- 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 6–5 since 1999
ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 17/26 | 205 | 0 | 1 |
| Matt Leinart | 7/10 | 61 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hightower | 6 | 87 | 14.5 | 1 |
| Chris Wells | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
| LaRod Stephens-Howling | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jason Wright | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kurt Warner | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 6 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Early Doucet | 8 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Steve Breaston | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Jerheme Urban | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 3 | 4 | 27 | 0 |
| Anthony Becht | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/32 | 247 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reggie Bush | 5 | 84 | 16.8 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 5 | 23 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Mike Bell | 6 | 11 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 6 | 9 | 83 | 1 |
| Devery Henderson | 4 | 5 | 80 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 3 | 3 | 36 | 1 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lynell Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
4.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.48