2009 · DIV

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Kurt Warner

14·45

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

NO -7

Total

57

Model margin

+4.5est.

NO perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSaints
  • -0.026EPA / play+0.118
  • 45.3%Success rate48.1%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.231
  • -0.143EPA / rush-0.028
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +3.71CPOE+6.47
  • 36.7%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 73.5%Red-zone TD rate60.6%
  • 1.75Points / drive2.36
  • 3.4%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 6–5 since 1999

ARI have won 2 straight. Meetings average 51.4 points. NO are 6-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W1ARI @ NO20–13ARI
2022 · W7NO @ ARI34–42ARI
2019 · W8ARI @ NO9–31NO
2016 · W15NO @ ARI48–41NO
2015 · W1NO @ ARI19–31ARI
2013 · W3ARI @ NO7–31NO
2010 · W5NO @ ARI20–30ARI
2007 · W15ARI @ NO24–31NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–NO
ARIQ1 15:00170Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 14:411167Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 9:17128Turnover7–7
NOQ1 9:00437Touchdown7–14
ARIQ1 7:0237Punt7–14
NOQ1 5:25577Touchdown7–21
ARIQ1 2:3136Punt7–21
NOQ1 0:2433Punt7–21
ARIQ2 14:471066Touchdown14–21
NOQ2 9:40683Touchdown14–28
ARIQ2 6:4824Turnover14–28
NOQ2 5:48940Touchdown14–35
ARIQ2 1:10547Missed field goal14–35
NOQ3 15:00422Punt14–35
ARIQ3 12:51417Punt14–35
NOQ3 10:36524Field goal14–38
ARIQ3 8:26518Opp touchdown14–45
ARIQ3 6:42971Turnover on downs14–45
NOQ3 2:461565Turnover on downs14–45
ARIQ4 8:2236Punt14–45
NOQ4 7:3133Punt14–45
ARIQ4 5:04516Punt14–45
NOQ4 2:0800Punt14–45
ARIQ4 0:1413End of half14–45

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kurt Warner17/2620501
Matt Leinart7/106100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tim Hightower68714.51
Chris Wells571.41
LaRod Stephens-Howling242.00
Jason Wright133.00
Kurt Warner100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald69770
Early Doucet811680
Steve Breaston47520
Jerheme Urban22340
Tim Hightower34270
Anthony Becht1180

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees23/3224730

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Reggie Bush58416.81
Pierre Thomas13524.00
Lynell Hamilton5234.61
Mike Bell6111.80
Robert Meachem144.00
David Thomas100.00
Drew Brees3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston69831
Devery Henderson45801
Jeremy Shockey33361
Reggie Bush45240
Pierre Thomas45180
Lance Moore2360
Robert Meachem0100
Lynell Hamilton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

4.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.48